In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing podcast, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown outline Capital Economics' expectations for 2026.

They tackle the key drivers and risks in the year ahead, examining how the AI narrative will unfold, why the US will be a notable outperformer, how much further China’s exporters can take market share and why a new Fed chair probably won’t deliver the rate cuts that Donald Trump wants.

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The World in 2026 homepage

The year began amid optimism that Europe was finally prepared to meet its economic potential. But as the end of 2025 approaches, how much has actually changed in the European story of weak growth and political fragmentation? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing join David Wilder to what has – and hasn’t – changed in the European outlook.

They explore Europe’s challenges in navigating an increasingly fractured global economy, including whether its industries are equipped to handle competitive pressures from the US and China, the risks stemming from elevated public debt, and why the urgency to ramp up defence spending isn’t being met by action.

Plus, in a clip from a recent client briefing, EM economists Liam Peach and William Jackson provide an update on the war in Ukraine and the latest White House efforts to broker a ceasefire.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode

Drop-In: The World in 2026 - The global macro and market outlook
Spotlight: The future of Europe
Read: ECB interest rates cuts doing little to boost growth
Watch: China and Russia – The limits of the “no limits” partnership

Read: Russia & China: a “no limits” partnership with limits

After all the kite-flying, the doom-laden briefings and the policy U-turns, the UK Budget landed well with the markets. But did gilts rally simply because the news wasn’t worse, or has the government genuinely won over the bond vigilantes? And for all the initial success in launching this Budget, where is the strategy that will lift the UK’s anaemic growth? Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory join David Wilder to assess the Budget’s impact, the economic fallout and why lingering political uncertainty still points to more bond-market volatility in 2026.

Plus, Chinese fixed-asset investment is falling, prompting debate among China watchers about whether it's a sign the crackdown on price wars and overcapacity is biting. But China Economist Leah Fahy explains why there could be less to investment's weakness than the success of Beijing’s policies – and the latest reading of our China Activity Proxy helps show why.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode

Watch: The Autumn Budget – What’s next for the economy and markets?
Register: Autumn Budget – What does it mean for the property outlook?
Read: Autumn Budget - Markets give the smaller-than-expected Budget the thumbs up
Explore: The economic and market impact of AI
Read: CAP: Growth slows, but industry still going strong