Brazil Forecasts Record Trade Surplus Despite US Tariffs, Eyes Global Partnerships in 2026 Economic Strategy

Welcome to Brazil Tariff News and Tracker, listeners, where we break down the latest on trade tensions, surpluses, and tariffs shaping Brazil's economy.

Brazil's Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services announced on January 6 that the country projects a robust trade surplus of $70 to $90 billion for 2026, surpassing last year's stronger-than-expected $68.3 billion result, which beat their own $61 billion forecast, according to Reuters and Prismedia.ai reports. Despite U.S. tariffs imposed on several Brazilian products—later partially reversed—exports grew 3.5% while imports rose 6.7%, driven by record shipments of soybeans, beef, corn, and coffee. China remains Brazil's top partner at $100 billion in exports, up 6%, though U.S. sales dipped 6.6% to $37.7 billion.

On the tariff front, President Trump's administration has hit Brazil hard. Sullivan & Cromwell's Tariffs Tracker details a 40% specific tariff on most Brazilian goods via an Executive Order addressing threats from Brazil's government, plus a 10% reciprocal tariff, totaling up to 50% on many items since August 2025. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, head of the ministry, expressed optimism for progress in U.S. talks, focusing on non-tariff issues like rare earths, tech, and data centers, while leveraging Brazil's renewable energy edge. The government eyes extending preferential tariffs with India, Mexico, and Canada amid Mercosur deals with the EU and UAE.

These U.S. measures reshaped trade flows—Brazil shifted exports away from America to maintain its surplus, as Rio Times Online notes—yet commodity strength and subdued imports signal resilience. With global tariffs averaging over 10%, per Export Development Canada, 2026 holds uncertainty, but Alckmin dismissed immediate oil market shocks from U.S. actions in Venezuela, Brazil's top export earner.

Stay tuned as negotiations evolve.

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