Brazil Faces Trump Tariff Turmoil: US Trade Tensions Reshape Exports and Spark Market Realignment in 2025

Welcome to Brazil Tariff News and Tracker, listeners. As 2025 draws to a close, President Trump's aggressive tariff policies have reshaped global trade, with Brazil caught in the crosshairs of escalating US measures.

Early in the year, Trump imposed a baseline 10% tariff on Brazilian imports as part of his reciprocal tariff blitz under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, according to A News reporting on his February and April executive orders. Tensions peaked on August 6 when Trump hiked Brazil's rate to 50%, citing threats to US national security and protesting Brazil's treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro amid coup investigations, as detailed by Lundgreens Investor Insights.

This swing disrupted Brazil's exports, where the US accounts for 16% of shipments—down 12% from 2024. Agricultural staples like coffee, beef, and grapes faced steep hits; Q3 grape volumes to the US plunged 68%. Producers redirected goods to China and Latin America, boosting those markets by 2% and 11% respectively.

Relief came in November with Executive Order 14360, exempting key Brazilian agricultural products like coffee, cocoa, and beef from additional duties, slashing the effective rate back to 10% on 249 items after bilateral talks, per A News and Wikipedia's tariff timeline. This rollback eased exchange pressures, aiding the real's 11.2% gain against the dollar to R$5.49, as Rio Times Online notes, fueled by Brazil's high 15% Selic rate and US policy distrust.

Broader impacts linger: US average tariffs hit 16.8%—highest since 1935—per Yale Budget Lab via A News, generating $236 billion in revenue through November. For Brazil, inflation stays contained at 4.3% for 2025, though fiscal spending ahead of 2026 elections could test the central bank.

Trump's tariff pendulum underscores Brazil's pivot to diversified markets amid US volatility. Stay tuned for 2026 updates as lumber and vehicle duties rise January 1.

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