The US and China have agreed to a 90-day truce in the trade war, following negotiations in Geneva. As part of the deal, the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China will lower its duties on American goods from 125% to 10%. Markets have welcomed these developments, but key questions still remain about the implications for the economy and inflation. This uncertainty puts the Federal Reserve (Fed) in a tough spot, and we await more clarity on the Fed’s direction from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on 15 May.

In Asia, the India–Pakistan conflict has calmed following a US-mediated ceasefire. We note that historically markets have typically recovered within a month of previous India-Pakistan conflicts, and continue to monitor key indicators such as the Indian Rupee and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) flows, as well as geopolitical developments.

This episode is presented by Chintan Bhindora from the Julius Baer Research Asia team.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua discusses the Trump effect on US GDP growth and on recent election outcomes in Canada, Australia and Singapore. The flight to safety by voters and investors have favoured familiar incumbents and driven capital flows into gold, European equities and Chinese stocks. Markets are likely to remain in wait-and-see mode as investors await the FOMC rate decision on 7 May and the BoE decision a day later. The age-old adage to ‘Sell in May and go away’ could prompt some risk-averse investors to reconsider their stock positions. Historical evidence supports outperformance in the November-April time period, albeit 68% of the time.

US Treasuries and equities staged a strong comeback last week after US President Donald Trump appeared to strike a conciliatory tone on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and on the tariff deadlock with China. However, several US manufacturing activity indicators point to renewed contraction in regional manufacturing activities, and polls conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post revealed that 64% of respondents disapprove of the Trump tariffs, and 7 in 10 believe that the tariffs will lead to higher inflation.

Against this backdrop, Julius Baer now expects two 50 bps rate cuts for the US, and have raised its recession probability to 50% from 35% for the next 12 months.

This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

US President Donald Trump escalated his open criticism of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Monday, sparking concerns about the central bank’s independence. Meanwhile,​​Trump is also ramping up pressure on China, imposing fresh restrictions on the export of Nvidia's H20 AI chips. However, the University of Michigan consumer survey indicates that US consumer sentiment is rapidly declining, arguably placing him under growing pressure to strike a deal with Beijing.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of Research, Hong Kong at Julius Baer.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury moved up 50 basis points last week, representing one of the most significant single-week increases on record. As the US administration's unpredictable tariff policies continue to unsettle markets, how can investors navigate this challenging investment landscape?

Steve Wang, Fixed Income Specialist Asia at Julius Baer, sits down with Esteban Burbano, Managing Director and Fixed Income Strategist at PIMCO, to discuss the current economic picture, the impact of tariffs on inflation expectations and how the Federal Reserve might respond, the state of the US Treasury market, and the opportunities in the fixed income market amidst this unprecedented volatility.

(This episode was recorded on 17 April 2025)

US President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements sent shockwaves through financial markets and 2 April 2025 will certainly be remembered as a hugely significant day. But what are the implications for investors in the wake of all the tariff-related uncertainty? In this episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about navigating the world of investing post-Liberation day. They discuss the risk of a recession, the role of US and non-US assets in portfolios, the outlook for safe-haven assets including the US dollar, and much more.

00:31 Introduction
01:07 Has the risk of a US and global recession increased?
03:24 What is the expected timeline now?
05:20 Is it possible to say what Trump’s plan is?
06:41 The US Federal Reserve’s dilemma
08:14 Impact on capital flows to the US
09:49 Adjusting exposure to US and non-US assets
10:58 Where do US technology stocks go from here?
12:36 The outlook for the US dollar now
15:21 The reaction of the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen
16:23 Historic moves in bond markets
18:46 What to focus on now in the fixed income space
20:19 Thoughts on gold in the current environment
22:16 What does the situation mean for Swiss equities?
23:38 The role of Chinese equities in a portfolio
26:44 The significance of talks between the EU and China
27:49 Exposure to India to increase portfolio diversification
29:02 The relevance of the Q1 earnings season
30:29 Oil prices under pressure
31:48 Our expectations for the rest of the year
33:31 Outro

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Recent spikes in Treasury yields, public criticism from Republican mega-donors on the tariff policy, and calls by Wall Street CEOs to the White House and the Treasury Secretary, seem to have caught the White House’s attention. Reciprocal tariffs on all countries (excluding China), and tariffs on many electronics goods have been paused. Investors are taking some comfort in the White House’s attentiveness to the Treasury market. But until the tariff issues are resolved, significant uncertainty will continue to weigh on the market.

As global markets reel from the fallout of the "Liberation Day" tariff announcements, gold is once again thrust into the spotlight. Despite a recent pullback amidst the market turmoil, the yellow metal has risen by around 20% overall in the past six months and continues to chart new highs.

In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, examine the rising demand of gold as a safe haven asset, continued central bank buying flows, and the factors behind the recent volatility.