Betfair vs Reality: Why Goal Markets Are Mispriced and How Traders Exploit It

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Most football traders assume Betfair has the goal markets nailed.

The odds move.
The clock ticks.
The prices “must” be right.

But that assumption is where most traders go wrong.

In this episode, I break down how Betfair actually prices goals, why time decay plays a bigger role than real match pressure, and where the market consistently lags behind what’s happening on the pitch.

You’ll learn:

• How goal prices are really formed pre-match and in-play
• Why 0–0 scorelines often create false value
• How pressure, xG, and big chances expose mispriced markets
• Why profitable traders bet against bad pricing, not outcomes

This is essential viewing if you trade:

• Over goals markets
• Lay the Draw
• Late goal strategies

And if you want to stop guessing and start trading with evidence, I’ll also show you how to use data to turn these ideas into a repeatable edge.

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