Beef Continues to Climb

BEEF: I've been saying for a few weeks now it would not be a bad idea to keep well ahead of your needs. I’m doubling down on this as the reduced production we’ve seen this year is impacting product availability and pricing. Inventories will be tighter still with reduced production and increasing demand. Last week’s harvest was 521k head, running a full 10% behind last year’s reduced production. Markets are responding hard to this tight inventory, everything, I mean everything is moving higher. Led by middle meats, ribeyes, tenderloins, and strip loins, but all cuts are seeing increases. I’ve seen a couple analysts have the opinion this surge will scare off consumers and turn back down. I hope they are right and I’m wrong, but right now all I see in increases and strong demand. I’d buy now, waiting will cost you money.

Chicken will be the alternate protein of choice for consumers moving from higher priced beef. Wings are lower a third week, I don’t see this lasting much longer while boneless skinless randoms and tenders are moving higher. I do expect chicken increases to continue. Proudction is running about 2% ahead of last year and demand is keeping the product moving.

On the Avian Flu front, another difficult week, 20 new cases reported affect 3.5 million birds, mostly egg layers. The northern migration is in full swing now, I do hope we get some relief soon

Soy and canola have another strong week moving higher. Its been so long since we’ve seen a bull market in soy oil but demand and moving product to biofuels has spurred this market higher. Not so for corn and wheat continuing to trade sideways.

Pork bellies leveled off at $153 same as last week. Bacon prices will be moving up but hopefully we get a few weeks breather. Loins, butts, ribs, all still a good value. Pork continues to be a great protein value.

The dairy market went on a tear last week, giving back almost all the gains this week. As of Thursday’s CME close, butter is down 16, barrel and block are both down 2. We’ll see what next week brings.

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