In this episode of the Frontier Minute, we break down the most critical business and macroeconomic developments across the Global South.Topics Covered This Week:Latin America: Banco do Brasil launches cross-border Pix instant payments in Argentina.Middle East & Asia: Despite regional conflicts and drone strikes on data centers, Big Tech (Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle, and Google) is doubling down on AI infrastructure in the Middle East. Meanwhile, China continues to accelerate widespread technology adoption, shifting its focus toward AI-driven productivity in hubs like its "coder villages."Africa: Uganda’s Central Bank launches a domestic gold-buying program following massive new mineral discoveries to shield the economy from market volatility.Global Markets: A macro look at how escalating geopolitical tensions are triggering near-term corrections and impacting Emerging Market Equity ETFs.

When we look at informal labor markets in the Global South, it is easy to attribute inefficiencies to a lack of financial literacy or unavoidable cultural norms. But what if these behaviors are actually highly rational responses to broken economic systems? In this episode of Beating Sisyphus, hosts Thomas Riveros and Lourdes Casanova sit down with Dr. Nicholas Swanson, Assistant Professor of Economics at Cornell University. Nicholas shares his journey from working in metals and mining investment banking at Evercore and HSBC to running randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in Sub-Saharan Africa. We dive deep into the behavioral economics of poverty, exploring Nicholas’s fascinating fieldwork. Discover why agricultural firms rationally "hoard" knowledge, why farmers face a "hungry season" due to cognitive memory failures rather than pure present bias, and how the social pressure to hire family members acts as a hidden "kinship tax" on business owners in Zambia .

🎙️ About the Guest: Nicholas Swanson is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Cornell University. He earned his Ph.D. in Economics from UC Berkeley and focuses his research on development, labor, and behavioral economics, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa.

📌 Chapters / Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction to Beating Sisyphus & Nicholas Swanson

(01:32) - From Investment Banking to RCTs: The Impact of Poor Economics

(06:01) - Designing Better Experiments & Understanding External Validity

(09:32) - Optimism for Africa: Tech in Rwanda and the Return of Commodities

(11:11 )- The Under-Training Puzzle: Why firms in low-income countries don't train workers

(22:20) - The "Hungry Season" in Zambia: Is it present bias or a memory failure?

(33:24) - The Kinship Tax: Why the social pressure to hire family members hurts businesses

(40:06) - Policy Takeaways: Why new technologies get blocked by power dynamics

(43:26) - Closing Thoughts: Hopeful emerging markets (Burundi & Ethiopia)

Beating Sisyphus is a production of the Cañizares Center for Emerging Markets in collaboration with the Cornell Emerging Markets Institute Club. We bring together leaders from across economics, technology, and policy to explore how innovation emerges under pressure.

In this special episode of Beating Sisyphus, Thomas Riveros sits down with Lourdes and Anne to discuss their incredible careers tracking the massive shift in global economic power. From the early days of studying developing nations at the UN and INSEAD, to tracking the explosive rise of Chinese and Latin American multinationals, they share the personal stories behind the macroeconomic data. They discuss why Western business models often fail in the Global South, the vital importance of humility in economic research, and why the next generation of business leaders must be bold enough to challenge the status quo.🎙️ About the Guests:Lourdes Casanova is the Director of the Cañizares Center for Emerging Markets at Cornell University, a member of the Future Councils of the World Economic Forum, and a globally recognized academic on emerging market multinationals.Anne Miroux is a Faculty Fellow at the Cañizares Center and spent decades at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), where she led FDI statistics and the World Investment Report.📌 Chapters / Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction & Turning the Tables(01:40) - Early Careers: Why Look South and East?(04:46) - Lourdes on Growing Up in Spain & The Rise of "Global Latinas"(08:32) - How Anne and Lourdes Built Their Legendary Partnership(11:00) - The 3 Ways to Look at Emerging Markets(18:25) - Why Western Business Models Fail in the Global South(22:15) - The Crucial Role of Humility in Economic Policy(24:45) - The Big Debate: Is Emerging Market Growth Inevitable?(32:45) - AI, Demographics, and the Future of the Global South(35:35) - Advice to Their Younger Selves: "Be Bold"(41:20) - Fieldwork Stories: High-Speed Rail in China & The Design of Brasilia(46:50) - A Hopeful Wish for MadagascarBeating Sisyphus is a production of the Cañizares Center for Emerging Markets in collaboration with the Cornell Emerging Markets Institute Club. We bring together leaders from across economics, technology, and policy to explore how innovation emerges under pressure.

In this episode of Beating Sisyphus, hosts Thomas Riveros and Lourdes Casanova welcome Salim Furth Senior Research Fellow and Director of the Urbanity Project at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.Together, they explore the economic foundations of housing markets, comparing the rigid zoning laws of the United States with the sprawling informality of emerging markets like Nigeria and India. Salim explains why "master plans" often fail in rapidly growing cities, how utility bills can serve as property titles in Indonesia, and why high housing costs—not just individual factors—are the primary driver of homelessness.Key Topics:Why housing regulation is more economically damaging than trade tariffs.The concept of "Premature Imitation" in developing cities.Hernando de Soto, property rights, and unlocking "dead capital."Case studies from Brazil, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and upstate New York.

Timestamps:

(00:00) – Introduction: Welcome Salim Furth.(01:05) – From Macro to Micro: Why Salim pivoted to housing affordability.(02:30) – The Sugar Tariff Analogy: Why housing regulation hits wallets hardest.

(05:36) – Trumansburg vs. Lagos: How different regions handle unrealistic zoning.

(10:00) – The hidden costs of informal housing and lack of title.

(14:40) – "Premature Imitation": Why Western master plans fail in emerging markets.

(17:15) – The Porto Alegre Model: Moving from planning to "constant monitoring."

(21:15) – The Anglosphere Paradox: Why wealthy English-speaking nations have the highest prices.

(25:00) – Housing challenges in India: Colonial laws and caste discrimination.

(28:40) – Hernando de Soto and the importance of unlocking capital.

(30:40) – The Indonesian Kampung Solution: Using utility bills as property rights.

(37:00) – Homelessness: Distinguishing between individual risk factors and systemic housing costs.

(41:20) – "Doubling Up": How private social safety nets prevent homelessness.

(47:35) – Emerging Market Spotlight: Ethiopia’s urban expansion grid strategy.

Is the era of US Dollar dominance truly over? And why does the math on government debt rarely add up?In this episode of Beating Sisyphus, hosts Thomas Riveros and Lourdes Casanova sit down with Jon Hartley (Hoover Institution, Stanford PhD candidate, and host of the Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century podcast).They dive deep into Jon’s 2023 paper on the International Public Debt Valuation Puzzle, exploring the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) and why inflation is often a fiscal phenomenon rather than just a monetary one. Jon explains why credible fiscal commitments are the secret weapon to defeating hyperinflation, citing historical examples from Brazil to Poland.The conversation then shifts to the hot topic of De-Dollarization. Jon debunks the narrative that the Greenback is losing its status, explaining the concept of "safe asset" demand and why China’s RMB faces an uphill battle to compete. Finally, Jon shares his optimism for Argentina under Javier Milei’s market reforms.Key Topics Discussed:📉 The Debt Puzzle: Why real debt values often don't match future surpluses.💵 De-Dollarization: Why the USD share of global reserves remains sticky .🏛️ Fiscal vs. Monetary: How consolidated government balance sheets explain inflation.🇦🇷 Argentina's Future: Why Javier Milei’s shock therapy might work.About the Guest: Jon Hartley is an economist and Policy Fellow at the Hoover Institution. A former employee of Goldman Sachs, the World Bank, and the Federal Reserve, he is currently a PhD candidate at Stanford University.

Timestamps:(00:00) – Intro: Jon Hartley (Hoover Institution & Stanford)(00:49) – From Goldman Sachs to Academia: Jon’s Journey

(05:26) – Why do Governments Borrow? (Keynes vs. Political Economy)

(08:30) – What is the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL)?(10:45) – The International Public Debt Valuation Puzzle Explained

(14:16) – How to Defeat Inflation: Lessons for Emerging Markets

(18:59) – Monetary vs. Fiscal Policy: The Consolidated Balance Sheet

(23:19) – De-Dollarization: Is the Dollar Actually Losing Power?(28:22) – Why China Struggles to Internationalize the RMB

(31:10) – Does "Safe Asset" Demand Let the US Run infinite Deficits?

(34:33) – The Bull Case for Argentina & Javier Milei’s Reforms

In this lightning round we ask: Is the "China Model" broken? In this episode of Beating Sisyphus, hosts Thomas Riveros and Lourdes Casanova sit down with Alicia García-Herrero (Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis and Senior Fellow at Bruegel) to analyze the economic realities behind China's rise—and its current state.From the "implicit social contract" that allowed Beijing to channel massive savings into growth, to the slow-motion crash of the real estate sector, Alicia provides a masterclass on why China’s model is not replicable. She also explains why the world is drifting toward a bipolar Cold War order and why India (and potentially Europe) might be the only forces capable of keeping the global economy multipolar.Key Topics Discussed:🇨🇳 The China Model: Why high savings and "repressed consumption" fueled the miracle (and why it can't last).🏗️ Real Estate Crisis: Why there was no "Lehman Moment" but a "Japan-style" slow bleed instead.🇮🇳 India’s Role: Why Alicia believes India is the critical player in preventing a US-China bipolar world.🇪🇺 Europe's Future: Can the EU get its act together to join India in a "square" of global powers?About the Guest: Alicia García-Herrero is the Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. She also serves as a Senior Fellow at the European think-tank BRUEGEL and as an advisor to the Spanish Government and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

Timestamps

(00:00) – Intro: Welcome Alicia Garcia-Herrero

(00:30) – Why Emerging Markets are more exciting than the West

(01:40) – The "Century of Humiliation" & China’s drive to return

(04:28) – Why the "China Model" is not replicable (The Secret of Excess Savings)

(07:45) – What other countries CAN learn from China (Vocational Education)

(09:58) – The Real Estate Crisis: Why no "Lehman Moment"?

(11:50) – Is China facing "Japanification"? (Deflation without a crash)

(12:15) – Why India is the "Last Hope" for a Multipolar World

(13:45) – Can Europe join India to break the US-China binary?

(14:38) – Closing: Finding optimism in a fragmented world

In this special episode of Beating Sisyphus, we host the launch of the 2025 Emerging Market Multinationals Report, titled "New Rules, New Opportunities."Celebrating the 10th anniversary of this flagship publication from the Cañizares Center for Emerging Markets at Cornell University, hosts Lourdes Casanova and Thomas Riveros are joined by co-author Anne Miroux and a panel of global experts from the OECD, IFC (World Bank Group), UNCTAD, and leading universities.Together, they explore the paradigm shifts defining the next decade for emerging economies—from the rise of "green" foreign direct investment (FDI) and the digital economy to the fragmentation of global trade and the challenges of regulating AI.Featured Speakers:Lourdes Casanova & Anne Miroux: Cañizares Center for Emerging Markets, Cornell University.Lorenzo Pavone: Head of Emerging Markets Network (EMnet), OECD Development Centre.Momina Aijazuddin: Senior Industry Manager (Financial Institutions Group), IFC / World Bank Group.Amelia Santos-Paulino: Chief of Investment Issues, UNCTAD.Veneta Andonova: Dean, Universidad de los Andes School of Management (Colombia).Lorena Palacios-Chacón: Professor, Tecnológico de Monterrey (Mexico).Jun Gong: School of Management, Zhejiang University (China).George Ugeux: CEO, Galileo Global Advisors.

Timestamps:

(00:00) – Intro & The 10-Year Anniversary of the Report

(07:49) – Chapter 1: The New Paradigm of "Strategic" Investment

(12:50) – The Rise of Emerging Market Multinationals (EMNCs)

(26:15) – Green Transition: Mobilizing Private Capital (Lorenzo Pavone)

(31:00) – Digital Economy & Investment Trends (Amelia Santos-Paulino)

(43:00) – The Changing Role of Development Finance (Momina Aijazuddin)

(52:45) – Innovation & Military Spending (Veneta Andonova)

(59:00) – China’s Role in the Pacific Alliance (Lorena Palacios-Chacón)

(1:06:40) – Fragmentation vs. Globalization (Alicia García-Herrero)

(1:13:50) – Private Firms vs. SOEs in China’s Outward FDI (Jun Gong)

(1:19:35) – The Challenge of Regulating AI (George Ugeux)

Former Director of International Finance at the Federal Reserve, Dr. Steven Kamin, breaks down the transmission of US monetary policy to the rest of the world. We discuss his research on why emerging markets (EMs) have become more resilient to Fed tightening, the impact of Chinese subsidies, and the potential risks to the US dollar's safe-haven status. Plus, a deep dive into Javier Milei’s stabilization plan in Argentina.See his work here: https://www.aei.org/profile/steven-b-kamin/DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of the entities they represent.

Chapters:

(00:00) Introduction: Beating Sisyphus & Dr. Steven Kamin's Background

(01:20) Living Abroad & Early Career in Latin America

(03:14) The "Crisis Department" at the Federal Reserve

(05:25) The "Great Moderation" vs. Post-2008 Volatility

(06:55) Monetary Transmission: How US Rates Impact the World

(09:47) The Volcker Shock vs. The 2005 "Good" Tightening

(12:40) Real Shocks vs. Inflation Shocks: A Crucial Distinction

(18:17) Supply Shocks: Does the Fed Look Through Them?

(20:04) Emerging Markets: Endemic Inflation & Currency Weakness

(22:04) China's Economy, Currency Manipulation & Subsidies

(25:53) Vulnerability: Why Fundamentals Matter for EMs

(27:50) Why Emerging Markets Were Resilient in 2024

(31:11) The "China Factor" in Global Demand

(33:23) US Dollar Dominance & Fiscal Responsibility Risks

(36:24) "Liberation Day" & The Dollar-VIX Structural Break

(43:08) Argentina: Milei, Stabilization, and Dollarization

(46:25) Conclusion

#macroeconomics #fed #milei #chinaeconomy #forex