Be Bold in 2026: Gemini’s Rise, Nike’s Struggle, and the Agentic Future of Shopify

The first Watson Weekend show of 2026 serves as a post-mortem for the NRF conference, where Rick Watson and Jessica Lesesky recap the live event held at the Asylum in New York City and share "Nostradamus-style" predictions for 2026.

The overarching theme for the coming year is "be bold," urging businesses to move past the economic hesitations of 2025.

The show highlights three major industry shifts:

The AI Wars: The hosts predict that Google’s Gemini will maintain its adoption momentum over OpenAI due to Google's vast data ecosystem, its integration into Android and Samsung devices, and its move to become the "default layer of intelligence" for the internet via the UCP protocol.

Nike’s Innovation Deficit: Despite a leadership change, Nike is criticized for losing its "cool" and "shelf dominance" by over-prioritizing Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategies at the expense of wholesale and its core running category. The hosts note that Nike’s margins are significantly lagging those of competitors like On.

Shopify’s Evolution: Shopify is seen as transitioning from a "storefront company" to an AI and payments powerhouse. With heavy investments in "agentic commerce," 2026 is expected to be the year these AI announcements deliver tangible results.

The episode concludes with a critique of the NRF conference itself, noting that while the industry is hopeful, many vendors are still failing to articulate the actual impact and data behind their AI products.

Housekeeping: Rick Watson is reorganizing the content for Watson Weekly and Watson Weekend, with an increased focus on the newsletter. There will be weekly interviews on Wednesdays, and the Watson Weekly remaining on Mondays. The Watson Weekend will move under the Watson Weekly banner as the weekend edition.

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