A 25-Year Low in GTA Home Sales — What Comes Next for 2026? — Real Estate Roundtable December 2025

This month's real estate roundtable brings together John Pasalis, Steve Saretsky, and mortgage broker David Larock for a deep dive into where the housing market is heading next. We start by looking at the surprising end to 2025, with home sales in the GTA on track to finish the year at a 25-year low. We break down what's driving the slowdown and how buyers and sellers are responding on the ground.

From there, we discuss the diverging outlooks for the Bank of Canada's next move. Some economists still see more cuts ahead, while one major Canadian bank is now forecasting a rate hike in 2026 — a scenario few thought possible just months ago. We explore what that would mean for borrowers, mortgage renewals, and price expectations.

We wrap up the conversation by sharing our forecasts for the housing market in 2026, the indicators we're watching most closely, and whether we believe next year will mark a turning point or another chapter in a difficult market.

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Follow John on X-Twitter @JohnPasalis; Email at: [e-mail]

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Follow David on X-Twitter @Dave_at_IMP; Email at [e-mail]

You can also watch this episode on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly

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