#709: How to Thrive in a Market Where 15% of Deals Are Falling Apart

Episode Overview:

In this episode of One Big Fire, John Kitchens and Jay Kinder is joined by top-producing Ohio team leader Jon Harp to tackle one of the biggest challenges in real estate today: why so many agents are struggling—and what the best are doing to win. With fallout rates at a five-year high and buyers more selective than ever, John and Jon unpack what’s actually working right now to recruit, convert, and close in a shifting market.

They cover everything from buyer presentation gaps, seller psychology, and inventory shifts to the real metrics every team leader needs to track to survive and scale. Whether you’re leading a growing team or flying solo, this conversation is full of real-talk insights, tested strategies, and actionable systems to help you thrive—not just survive—in today’s market.

Key Topics Covered The Buyer Presentation Black Hole

• Why zero of 75 agents had a buyer presentation (and why that’s a massive red flag)

• The difference between working with buyers versus chasing them

• How a structured buyer process builds trust, reduces fallout, and increases conversions

Understanding Fallout Rates & Buyer Behavior

• Why June’s home cancellation rate hit a record 15%

• How to pre-frame buyer remorse by educating clients on true cost of ownership

• The overlooked financial pressures (HOA, insurance, taxes) killing deals

Sellers Need More Than Motivation

• Why “motivated” isn’t enough—you need to uncover desperation

• The questions that reveal a seller’s real urgency

• How to guide sellers without relying on hope or wishful pricing

Inventory, Pricing Pressure & Market Positioning

• Zillow’s data on price cuts and inventory spikes: what it means for you

• How to use hyperlocal market knowledge to guide pricing strategy

• Creating listing presentations that anticipate objections and pre-frame value

Agent Habits That Actually Move the Needle

• The #1 difference between agents who grow and those who ghost

• How immersion, shadowing, and simple daily activities drive faster results

• What every new agent should be doing in their first 30 days (hint: not branding)

Lifetime Value and Playing the Long Game

• The 5-deal story that started with a $126K Zillow lead

• Why top teams invest in leads that produce years of revenue

• Teaching agents to value relationships over commission checks

Recruiting, Retention & Culture-Building

• Why some agents “stall out” at $1M in revenue

• The team structure, systems, and mindset shifts that break through the ceiling

• Creating predictable onboarding and momentum-building experiences

Resources & Tools Mentioned

• BAM & Zillow data reports on inventory and home cancellations

• Buyer presentation frameworks and fallout tracking systems

• Agent to CEO Live – Sept 24-25 in Cleveland

  • Includes ticket to Rock the Spectrum 10-Year Anniversary

  • Tickets & nomination forms: HoneyBadgerNation.com

Upcoming Event: Agent to CEO Live

• Sept 24–25 | Cleveland, OH

• Limited to 100 seats – nearly sold out!

• Master the systems, mindsets, and strategies that take you from agent to business owner.

• Includes ticket to Rock the Spectrum benefit concert!

• Get yours at agentceo.com or honeybadgernation.com

“You can’t rely on hope as a strategy. You need process, data, and the guts to tell sellers the truth.” – John Kitchens

Connect with Us:

• Instagram: @johnkitchenscoach
• LinkedIn: @johnkitchenscoach
• Facebook: @johnkitchenscoach

If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to subscribe and leave a review. Stay tuned for more insights and strategies from the top minds. See you next time! 🔥