#44. Oil to $40? Spare Capacity, Demand & LNG Volatility

What Moves Oil: $40 or $60?

On the Energy Espresso Podcast, host Jim Wicklund sits down with Jan Stuart, Global Energy Economist at Piper Sandler, to break down what could actually move oil prices.

After talk of $40 oil, Stuart pushes back, arguing it would take a recession-level shock and missteps from OPEC+. Instead, he sees ~$60 with upside, pointing to tight spare capacity, steady demand, and low inventories, while also unpacking LNG volatility and a potential near-term glut.

00:00 Welcome and Guest Intro

00:45 Elevator Oil Trader Story

01:37 Can Oil Hit 40

02:04 Iran Risk and Spare Capacity

02:55 Global Demand Growth Outlook

04:05 Surplus Debate and NGLs

04:20 OPEC Plus Adds Barrels Back

05:44 Thin Spare Capacity Reality

07:26 Just In Case Stockpiling

08:30 Putting a Price Forecast

10:25 Why Not 100 Dollar Oil

11:19 Tier Two Tech Upside

11:57 Oil Price Reality Check

12:50 Global Supply Shifts

13:15 Europe Net Zero Backlash

14:37 LNG Export Boom Risks

15:10 Early Signs Of Glut

17:42 China Power Mix Reality

19:11 Cheap Power Wins

20:07 Clearing LNG With Price

22:31 Tech Squeezes Margins

23:45 Wrap Up And Thanks