371. Setting the Stage for 2026: Commercial Real Estate Outlook, Key Predictions & Market Resolutions

In our final 2025 episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we look ahead to what 2026 may bring for commercial real estate (CRE), sharing initial calls for the year while reflecting on how economic conditions, interest rates, and tariffs shaped the past twelve months. We dive into CMBS-specific dynamics, including issuance, delinquencies, and maturities that set the stage for the new year. Our predictions tackle the big questions: Will CMBS hit the $100B issuance three-peat? Where is bank lending headed? And what’s next for the looming CMBS maturity wall? We review rising delinquency trends and forecast where the numbers might land, and also provide our insights on property pricing as the new year begins. We close with our New Year’s resolutions for the market. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• CRE Calls for 2026 (1:16)

• Market Inflection Point (6:18)

• Economy, Interest Rates & Tariff Impacts (8:25)

• Walmart & Amazon Discussion (14:17)

• 2026 CMBS Issuance & Lending Volumes Predictions (18:54)

• December 2025 CMBS Delinquency Report & 2026 Predictions (22:35)

• Rolling CMBS Maturity Wall (26:33)

• Property Prices (30:20)

• New Year’s Resolutions for CRE (36:24)

• Programming Notes & Shoutouts (41:44)

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