#329 Chris Whalen: Private Credit Is a Ticking Time Bomb | Banks Will Take Major Losses in 2026

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen."

In this episode of The Wrap, Whalen breaks down why GSE release is officially off the table after Trump ordered them to buy back their own debt—a move Whalen calls "politics" driven by midterm election fears. He shares his take on crypto as "a polite form of gambling," explains why he prefers gold over silver despite silver's recent run, and dives deep into the housing market's affordability crisis. Whalen reveals his biggest concern for 2026: the hidden risks in private equity and credit, calling them "rancid pools of illiquid, opaque assets" that could cause major bank losses. He also weighs in on the DOJ's subpoena of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, predicting Kevin Warsh will likely be the next Fed chair, and closes with his outlook on markets, the dollar, and bank stocks.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome back to the Wrap with Chris Whalen

0:30 GSE release officially off the table?

2:32 The $200 billion announcement is politics

4:08 Political landscape and midterm elections

4:49 Crypto legislation falls apart

5:14 Crypto as speculation vs. gold & silver

6:40 Silver's short squeeze and volatility 8:30

Gold vs. silver as long-term trades

9:07 Copper and Dr. Copper as economic indicator

10:10 Housing policy and affordability crisis

12:10 Will the Fed allow home prices to fall?

14:30 Bank earnings season takeaways

16:50 Consumer delinquencies and economic warning signs

18:12 The hidden risk in private equity and credit

19:48 The "POOP" problem in private lending

21:42 Private credit as a ticking time bomb

22:58 Jerome Powell's DOJ subpoena

24:21 Kevin Warsh and the future of the Fed

27:05 Could the Fed resume MBS purchases?

28:56 Viewer question: NLY/Annaly REIT

30:52 Parting thoughts and 2026 outlook

31:46 Closing