#317 Chris Whalen: Divided Fed, Home Prices Falling, Bank Earnings Up In 2026 & Private Equity Crisis Ahead?

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down the latest FOMC meeting, revealing a divided Fed with no clear consensus on future rate cuts. He predicts a home price correction coming and also warns of a brewing crisis in private equity, where 15-20% of companies are insolvent and relying on payment-in-kind structures. Whalen also discusses JPMorgan's surprise expense guidance this week, the Fed's Reserve Management Purchases (and whether it's QE by another name), and explains why the commercial real estate market remains a major risk. He expects higher bank earnings next year despite hidden dangers in lending to non-depository financial institutions, and shares his skeptical view on stablecoins and AI infrastructure spending.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen

00:49 FOMC meeting recap

04:03 Inflation as the #1 issue for Americans

05:13 Home price correction coming

06:03 Commercial real estate crisis deepening

07:25 Fed's Reserve Management Purchases explained

09:22 Fed managing liquidity into year-end

11:35 JPMorgan's surprise expense guidance

14:33 NDFIs: Lending reminiscent of 1920s practices

15:45 Private equity insolvency crisis? (15-20% insolvent)

16:51 Deflationary risk from forced asset sales

22:45 Private credit hidden risk

23:53 2026 outlook

24:24 Ginnie Mae vs Fannie/Freddie liquidity problem

26:28 Do stablecoins make sense?

27:56 Oracle CDS spiking and AI infrastructure spending

30:27 Viewer question: Fed control over mortgage rates

33:33 Viewer question: Manufacturing renaissance under Trump?

34:57 Viewer question: Are 10-year treasuries a good investment now?

36:16 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen