#314 Chris Whalen: Fed Cutting Rates For Politics, Not Economics

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down what's ahead for the Federal Reserve and financial markets as we head into 2026. He discusses Kevin Hassett as the likely next Fed Chair, explaining why Fed independence is more myth than reality and how political pressures will influence rate decisions ahead of the midterm elections. Whalen analyzes the upcoming FOMC meeting, commercial real estate risks, and why he's not concerned about an imminent market crisis despite ongoing concerns about the Treasury market and credit conditions. He also tackles why the Fed's 2% inflation target may be outdated and explains the K-shaped economy that has consumers and investors feeling divided about the recovery.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen

01:49 Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair pick?

02:29 Fed independence and political dynamics

05:00 Midterm elections and rate cut pressure

09:28 FOMC meeting preview and rate cut expectations

09:31 Jobs data and Fed concerns

12:45 Commercial real estate challenges

16:20 Banking sector health and credit quality

19:35 Private credit market concerns

22:50 Treasury market dynamics

27:31 Viewer question: Why the 2% inflation target?

28:14 Inflation vs deflation in asset markets

30:00 Biggest risks entering 2026

30:27 Surprise events and systemic risk

31:21 K-shaped economy and recovery paths

33:00 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen