284 – You Are Losing Deals You Never Even Saw (The 28 Moments)

Subscribe to our Newsletter: https://theultimatepartner.com/ebook-subscribe/ Check Out UPX: https://theultimatepartner.com/experience/ In this high-impact podcast episode to kick off 2026, Vince Menzione sits down with Jay McBain (Canalys/Informa) to decode the tectonic shifts reshaping the technology ecosystem. Jay reveals why the tech economy is forecasting double-digit growth while the broader economy lags, introducing a “Tale of Two Cities” where direct infrastructure sales are booming but partner influence is more critical than ever. He explains the drop in channel transact share to 66.7% and why the “96% Partner Assist” is the new metric for success. Jay also details the shift away from traditional “Gold/Silver/Bronze” programs toward point systems that recognize partners at every one of the “28 moments” in the customer journey, from influence to long-term retention. Key Takeaways The tech industry is forecast to grow 10.2% in 2026, outpacing the global economy’s 2.7% growth.Channel transact share has dropped from 75% to a forecast of 66.7% as infrastructure deals go direct.Nvidia and the “Magnificent Seven” are driving a massive direct infrastructure build-out for the next era.Microsoft measures a 96% “Partner Assist” rate, with up to seven partners involved in every deal.80% of customers now prioritize partner certifications and competencies over relationships when choosing partners.The number one request from partners is to be recognized for value across all 28 moments, not just the point of sale. If you’re ready to lead through change, elevate your business, and achieve extraordinary outcomes through the power of partnership—this is your community. At Ultimate Partner® we want leaders like you to join us in the Ultimate Partner Experience – where transformation begins. Key Tags: Jay McBain, Canalys, Informa Tech, Partner Assist, 28 Moments, Tech Growth 2026, Channel Strategy, Nvidia, Infrastructure Buildout, Partner Economics, Microsoft Ecosystem, AWS, Direct Sales, Indirect Sales, Partner Influence, Multiplier Effect, Customer Journey, Partner Programs, Tech Economy, Ecosystem Orchestration. https://youtu.be/ntogEr6mjKg?si=_AaBPBfv9KcMRA9D Transcript: [00:00:00] Jay McBain: By the way, marketplaces, the massive growth in marketplaces for everyone that doesn’t own the marketplace is also an indirect sale. It should be helping these numbers. Yeah, so, but there’s one company that’s driving and happens to be the most valuable company in the world right now. [00:00:15] Vince Menzione: Let’s start off with the first, my burning question I have first, let’s cover it first. [00:00:21] Vince Menzione: If you had a sum up 2026 for partners in one sentence. What is it and what are people still underestimating? [00:00:29] Jay McBain: Yeah, it’s one, one word is probably opportunity. Opportunity. Um, so we look around the world, uh, the world economy without technology in it is gonna grow at 2.7%. That’s about $120 trillion with technology in it, technology industry, we’re forecasting to grow by double digits. [00:00:47] Jay McBain: Amazing. You know, in a world that’s growing at two, uh, we’re expecting 10.2%. Growth. And this industry, as you know, is surrounded by partners. Yes. And there are opportunities in hardware, in software, in services, in telco, all the different parts of the customer’s budget. And to look through the double digits though, I mean the, the extension of the sentence is, it’s a tale of two cities. [00:01:11] Jay McBain: Yeah. I was gonna ask you about this. Police do. There isn’t an opportunity in every slice. You know, some of the slices are shrinking by single digits. Some of them are growing by low single digits, but some of them are in the 20, 30, 40% growth range. And this is what partners are starting to think, these tectonic shifts that are happening, the ultimate partnerships that are happening are in very specific places that you kicked off this session talking about. [00:01:35] Vince Menzione: Yeah. So I would love to di dive in here because we have your, we have your slide up behind us. In fact, in talking about this $6.1 trillion economy around te uh, tech and telco and this opportunity. So, you know, we’re, there are gonna be winners and losers right in, in terms of these, uh, these segments or slices of the economy. [00:01:55] Vince Menzione: We can talk about that now. I, I think maybe it would be a good idea to talk about both the channel and, and why the par the channel plays such a big role in this growth. And then talk about what the winners and losers are gonna be. [00:02:07] Jay McBain: Yeah, I mean, broader. Um, actually if we go to the next, uh, slide, there is, um, a declining number and in the world economy that 120 trillion, 75% of it. [00:02:20] Jay McBain: Uh, moves indirectly. You bought your last car from a dealer. Yeah. You bought your last, uh, TV from a retailer, you know, peanut ...