2026 1-5 Matters of Democracy American landscape at the beginning of 2026

two distinct but concurrent analyses of the American landscape at the beginning of 2026. The primary focus is a detailed review of Donald Trump's second presidential term in 2025, which is characterized as a systematic dismantling of democratic institutions, norms, and the rule of law. The analysis outlines a comprehensive effort to nullify checks and balances, weaponize the Department of Justice for political and personal ends, and engage in widespread corruption, including extorting corporations and selling pardons. Despite these actions, public approval for the administration remains around 40%, a phenomenon attributed to deep political polarization, structural weaknesses in constitutional guardrails, and fragmented opposition.

Concurrently, the macroeconomic environment entering 2026 is defined by a "Quad 1" regime of accelerating growth and decelerating inflation. This has created a pro-risk market landscape characterized by a significantly weakening U.S. Dollar (down 9.4% in 2025), falling interest rates signaling a dovish Federal Reserve, and suppressed market volatility. This environment is fueling strong performance in asset classes such as precious metals, specific international equities, and cyclical U.S. sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary. While the political analysis details a year of institutional turmoil, the macroeconomic data points to a period of economic expansion and favorable conditions for investors.