1q26 Risks - Inflation Rising: Stock Market Update, Friday January 30, 2026

Early 2026 market volatility has my attention, despite realized volatility staying low... while the bond and options markets quietly flash warning signs for a choppy first quarter. Today I'm revisiting why our team expected inflation to cool faster in 2025, driven by easing shelter costs, slowing wages, and productivity gains from AI, while also explaining why goods inflation may reaccelerate short term due to tariffs, reshoring, and higher input costs. I share what’s keeping me up at night over the next few months, why a potential February Tax Day pullback wouldn’t end the bull market, and why we’d view it as one of the few real buying opportunities of the year. Elevated volatility creates discomfort, but historically, it also can create opportunity. Our team at Oak Harvest Financial Group is focused on helping long-term investors stay patient, prepared, and positioned no matter what 2026 throws our way.

About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an MBA from the Harvard Business School. Driven by a desire to maximize his knowledge and skill set, he acquired financial planning and investment management qualifications, becoming a Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC®), and a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®).

Stock Talk is a weekly vlog/podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy with a little education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money!

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Important disclosures: Content of Oak Harvest podcasts expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. Oak Harvest believes that any data, articles, or information cited are reliable at the time of creation, but does not warrant any information contained herein to be correct, complete, accurate, or timely. References to third-party analysts should not be seen as an endorsement of their views or recommendations, and you should do your own research before investing. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast constitutes personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Any specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.