#183. The State of the Freight Market

In this episode of Haulin Assets, we’re giving a freight market update—and while the beginning might sound a little doom-and-gloom, don’t worry. There’s light at the end of the tunnel, and we share why things are finally starting to turn around.

We walk through the current market forces, how we got here, and why I believe the 4th quarter of 2025 could be the best we’ve seen in quite a while.

You can listen to the full episode here or on your favorite podcast app.

What We Talk About In This Episode

We start off with a quick story about a rental truck and a call I had with a judge in Oregon who, until now, had never let anyone off the hook for an OR citation. After I explained how Oregon’s system works—and how it differs from other states—she had a change of heart. It was a good reminder of how misunderstood the trucking world can be from the outside.

Then we dig into the big topic: how the freight market has evolved over the past five years, with a focus on:

• A quick refresher on supply and demand, complete with a graph analogy:

  • Y-axis = freight rates

  • X-axis = number of trucks and volume of freight

  • Where the lines cross is market equilibrium—where supply meets demand

• What happened during and after COVID:

  • Massive consumer spending on goods instead of travel

  • Skyrocketing freight volume and rates

  • A wave of new entrants into the trucking industry

• How it all began to change around March 2022:

  • Too many trucks on the road

  • Freight rates dropping consistently for nearly two years

• Signs of stabilization in 2024–25:

  • Truck count slowly decreasing

  • Demand holding steady

  • Recent holidays (DOT Blitz, Memorial Day, July 4th) showed stronger rate spikes than we’ve seen in years

The Bottom Line

For the first time in a long while, we’re back near equilibrium. There’s very little excess capacity in the market right now, and when capacity dips—even a little—rates jump. That’s a good sign.

I think we’re heading into a much stronger Q4 than we’ve had in recent years. If you’ve been hanging on, it might finally start paying off.