128: Chalk, plasticine, and the art of experimenting when broke

You've been told you must transform your business with AI. But you have no budget for consultants, no runway for experiments, and absolutely no permission to fail.So... what now?This is the impossible bind facing many executives right now. And spoiler: trying to brute-force it is exactly how you end up as the expendable experiment in someone else's portfolio.Drawing lessons from electricity infrastructure booms, a hapless lettuce entrepreneur, Tom Chi's plasticine prototypes, and our own white-knuckle cash crisis earlier this year, we explore what actually works when resources are scarce, pressure is high, and the path forward is genuinely uncertain.Including-but-not-limited-to:Complexity of abundance vs complexity of scarcity: why portfolio strategies collapse when you run out of eggs to put in basketsThe electricity/steam substrate shift: why you can't just "add AI" to your existing factory layout and expect magicWhy some execs are being set up as expendable experiments in someone else's portfolio ... and how to spot if you're one of themOur own near-death cash flow moment, and why we didn't buy any of the blueprints that promised us a solutionWatchful waiting: the counterintuitive move that actually worked when all we wanted to do was panicWhy the lettuce man was right but early, which is functionally the same as being wrongTom Chi and the art of radical cheapness: testing Google Glass with plasticine, wire, and half a dayThe oblique AI productivity hack where you get productivity ... but not by trying to be productiveHow to make experiments so cheap that you can afford to throw most of them awayTesting your core assumptions vs your peripheral ones—why people protect their existential beliefsThe dangerous middle ground: trying to get early adopter benefits without an early adopter resource cushionWhy substrate change happens through billions of individual choices, not top-down mandatesJP Castlin's bind: when your assumptions don't match reality, you can try to change your assumptions or you can try to change reality. Choose wisely."If you're really at the point where you've got no resources left, you have to focus on survival first. You can't do transformation when you're in survival mode."References:East of Eden by John Steinbeck (the lettuce carriage story)Shape Up by Ryan Singer / Basecamp (fat marker sketches)Dave Snowden - Cynefin framework https://cynefin.io/wiki/CynefinImre Lakatos - philosopher (research programs: core vs peripheral assumptions)JP Castlin https://strategyinpraxis.substack.comTom Chi - Google Glass rapid prototyping https://youtu.be/d5_h1VuwD6gRob Snyder - PULL framework, AI note-taker example https://howtogrow.substack.com/p/nobody-wants-aiJohn Cutler & Tom's article about leading in ambiguity https://cutlefish.substack.com/p/tbm-274-how-capable-leaders-navigateUncertainty bubbles / The Double Game (deliberate vs emergent strategy) Opportunity Method Format (OMF) https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/052-omf-opportunity-method-formatMultiverse Mapping https://multiversemapping.com4U framework: Unpack, Undergo, Unfold - https://crownandreach.com/#resourcesObliquity by John KayThe Founder (McDonald's kitchen scene) https://youtu.be/F-7cjdtrQ9YMinority Report (gesture interface scenes)Episode on Founder Mode / Brat Summer https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/073-brat-summer-for-billionairesEpisodes 007-009: Pitch Provocations: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/663109cbcff31b0012ae9326Find out more about us and our work at crownandreach.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.