Why Trump Won

How My Five Points Beat the Establishment to Predict Trump's 2024 Victory

The experts had it wrong. Spectacularly wrong.

Election Night 2024 stunned the nation—maps bleeding red in ways no network model saw coming. CNN stammered, MSNBC scrambled, and Lichtman’s vaunted 13 Keys collapsed under the weight of a new political reality. One forecast stood alone in the chaos: The Five-Point Forecast. It didn’t just predict the outcome—it explained it.

This is the electrifying autopsy of a broken prediction industry—and the rise of a model that dared to put voters, not pundits, at the center.

In Why Trump Won, you’ll witness the fall of academic orthodoxy and the unraveling of 'experts' that mistook stability for inevitability. Part memoir, part manifesto, this book dives deep into the cracks that doomed conventional wisdom: misread charisma, economic discontent, blind faith in incumbency.

Then it rebuilds from the ground up, with the Five-Point Forecast—zeroing in on economic sentiment and inflation, employment and economic growth, energy prices and consumer confidence, perceptions of government response, and the role of accurate polling. From Pennsylvania's industrial unrest to Arizona’s border anxiety, and much more, this is a model that saw America as it was—not how elites wished it to be.

More than just an election postmortem, this is a clarion call for a new age of political forecasting—adaptive, unflinching, human.

The old days are gone. The old ways are dead. This is how America actually votes.

interesting but more about polling then about reasons for Trump's victory

while this did touch on some aspects of the reasons for Trump's victory, in reality it's an indictment of the past polling techniques, and a positive critique of modern-day polling methods that take into account social media. While that's not what the title implies, it is interesting.