The Unseen Swing

The Untold Story of America’s Post-Night Ballots

Matthys van Leeuwen never expected to investigate American elections. A former fraud investigator from the Netherlands, he assumed he had left analytical work behind when he traded coalition politics and red-pencil ballots for Washington State’s all-mail voting system.

That changed on a November night in 2017, when a local race swung sharply after the polls had closed. The numbers shifted in ways that didn’t belong—and no one seemed to notice. For years it remained a quiet curiosity, until the 2025 Seattle mayor’s race plunged into a twentyone-day count that defied every statistical expectation. That was the moment the itch became a mandate.

The Unseen Swing blends memoir and forensic inquiry as van Leeuwen retraces nearly a decade of unexplained voting shifts. He sifts ballot-count data, maps turnout curves, and uncovers a recurring pattern that first emerged after the 2016 election. Along the way, he confronts a central, uncomfortable truth: universal mail-in voting relies on trust more than verification—and trust is the first thing to erode when ballots travel through private, unsupervised spaces.

Part personal journey, part investigative analysis, The Unseen Swing offers a compelling look at how voting methods shape outcomes—and why the mechanics of democracy matter as much as the votes themselves.

Part I: The Mirage of Election Night

1. The Night We Cheered Too Early

2. When the Pattern Changed

Part II: Lessons from the Old World

3. Democracy Is Not a Spectator Sport

4. The Red Pencil and the Folded Ballot

5. Counting a Nation Before Midnight

Part III: How the Ground Shifted

6. What We Let Go

7. The Illusion of Election Night

Part IV: Inside the Ballot Box

8. The Night Trust Began to Fray

9. Chasing Ballots

10. When the Numbers Behaved

11. The Swing No Model Predicted

12. When the Numbers Broke Pattern

Part V: The Blind Spots of Modern Voting

13. Identity Optional

14. Privilege, Lost and Found

15. The Work-From-Home Democracy

Part VI: Unmasking and Repair

16. The Lullaby That Broke

17. Inside the Loophole

18. Close the Door at Eight

19. Why Mail-In Voting Fails in a Two-Party America