Is USMCA at Risk? Colin Bird Breaks Down What Happens Next

The USMCA review is fast approaching, uncertainty is building across the automotive industry, and leaders are asking a critical question: Is the agreement that binds North America together at risk?Colin Bird, the Consul General of Canada in Detroit, United States, brings clarity. This is not a collapse or a dramatic reset. It is a built-in review designed to test whether the agreement still works in a world that has fundamentally changed. The environment that shaped USMCA no longer exists. Supply chains are strained, global competition is intensifying, and China has accelerated ahead in the EV space.The real issue is not whether the agreement survives. The issue is whether North America can operate effectively under pressure. July 1 is not a breaking point. It’s part of a process meant to ensure the agreement stays relevant while the industry evolves at speed.Colin makes it clear that the real danger comes when North America starts putting up barriers within its own system. The automotive supply chain has been built over decades to operate seamlessly across borders. When tariffs or policy decisions disrupt that flow, it does not just impact one country. It makes the entire region less competitive at a time when global players are moving fast.This episode is about what matters now: certainty, coordination, and competitiveness. The industry doesn’t need more noise or political posturing. It needs alignment. Because if North America wants to win, it must act as one integrated system, not three separate countries.Themes Discussed in this EpisodeWhat the USMCA “review” really meansWhy July 1 is not a cliff, but a checkpointThe risk of disrupting a deeply integrated supply chainHow tariffs and policy decisions can backfire on North AmericaWhy China’s EV acceleration changes everythingThe critical role of certainty and predictability for investmentWhat leaders must focus on to stay competitive globally🎥 Watch the full episode on YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@jangriffithsautomotiveleadersThis episode is sponsored by Lockton, click here to learn moreFeatured Guest: Colin BirdColin is the Consul General of Canada in Detroit, United States, brings deep, real-world expertise in international trade at a moment when it matters most to the automotive industry. With a background in government studies from Harvard and a law degree from the University of Ottawa, he has worked across the full spectrum of North American and global trade, from serving as counsel to the NAFTA Secretariat to leading trade law and policy on complex issues like aerospace and softwood lumber. He played a central role in the U.S.-Canada trade relationship while based in Washington, D.C., including during the transformation of NAFTA into USMCA. Colin has also represented Canada at the World Trade Organization and at the highest global forums, including the OECD, G7, and G20. Today, in Detroit, he operates at the heart of the North American automotive ecosystem, where trade policy directly impacts manufacturing, investment, and competitiveness across the region.About Your Host – Jan GriffithsJan Griffiths is the champion for culture change and the host of the Automotive Leaders Podcast. A former automotive executive with a rebellious spirit, Jan is known for challenging outdated norms and inspiring leaders to ditch command and control. She brings honesty, energy, and courage to every conversation, proving that authentic, human-centered leadership is the future of the automotive industry.Episode Highlights[02:43] Inside the Deal: Colin takes us back to the renegotiation of NAFTA into USMCA and why Detroit sits at the center of a deeply integrated, cross-border manufacturing system.[03:37] From Tension to Alignment: What began as a tough negotiation shifted toward shared goals: higher wages, stronger labor standards, and rebuilding North American manufacturing.[06:29] Review, Not Renegotiation: July 1 is not a breaking point. It is a structured review to ensure the agreement keeps pace with change.[08:11] The Need for Certainty: In a volatile environment, the industry is asking for predictability to support investment and long-term planning.[10:49] Reading the Political Noise: Colin explains how to interpret strong political language and separate negotiation tactics from real risk.[13:08] Industry Is Driving the Agenda: Automotive leaders across all three countries are aligned. Protect the agreement. Improve it. Do not disrupt it.[14:00] The Cost of Disruption: Breaking supply chains that took decades to build weakens North America and opens the door for global competitors.[16:30] Competing with China: The real competitive pressure is external. China’s acceleration in EVs raises the stakes for North America to act as one system.[18:45] Avoiding Self-Inflicted Damage: Tariffs and internal barriers do not strengthen local economies. They reduce overall competitiveness across the region.[21:10] A Fragile Global System: Colin ...