#307: Is SpaceX’s IPO a Buy?

This week, we’re discussing one of the most significant IPOs of all time: SpaceX.

While space travel began as a government-led effort, over the past few decades it has increasingly become the domain of the private sector. For those who need a refresher on the business of space—and SpaceX specifically—Emmet has you covered with a detailed preamble.

SpaceX consists of three core businesses: rocket launches and space haulage, Starlink internet, and government and defense communications infrastructure known as Starshield. The long-term goal across all three is to drive down the cost of space launches and become the go-to provider for space infrastructure companies. However, SpaceX has also recently acquired xAI, bringing Twitter, Grok, and their associated costs into the picture.

For Mike, this is key to understanding why the company may pursue an IPO.

You might think that after years of sparring with investors, Musk would want to avoid public markets—especially given how well the business is performing privately. But with xAI now in the mix, SpaceX needs significant capital to build out data centers and attract top engineering talent. This creates tension for investors who are primarily interested in the company’s core space business.

As of this recording, SpaceX is targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation, implying it would go public at 56x revenue and 109x EBITDA. That’s extremely lofty—even with the Musk premium. Interestingly, the NASDAQ has also made aggressive rule changes to fast-track SpaceX’s inclusion in the NASDAQ-100, which would prompt a number of passive funds (such as QQQ) to purchase shares upon debut. This could further inflate the stock’s valuation, and Mike worries it may leave retail investors holding the bag while providing a liquidity event for private investors. Emmet agrees, comparing SpaceX’s unconventional path to market to the SPAC boom of 2020.

Overall, both believe that while SpaceX is a once-in-a-generation company, it may not be a once-in-a-generation investment.

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(adjust these after intro)

00:00 Intro04:08 SpaceX IPO Hype Begins07:50 Space Race to Moon Landing22:51 IPO Filing Details and Why Now27:41 NASDAQ Rule Changes34:22 SpaceX Three Businesses45:08 Launch Costs Collapse47:56 Would You Buy on IPO?