A new global power order?

Yesterday might mark a turning point in global history, and not because of what happened, but because of what did not.

For the first time in my life, I found myself relieved that genocide had been avoided. That alone tells us how dangerous this moment has become.

We are now told there is an Iran peace deal. The United States is presenting this as a success. It is not. Strip away the rhetoric, and this looks like a retreat. After huge cost and escalation, the US has stepped back from a weaker position than the one it started from.

In this video, I explain why that matters.

First, the deal itself appears to favour Iran. Claims that Iran “begged” for peace look implausible. Instead, this is a fragile ceasefire born of failed escalation.

Second, this signals a shift in global power. Iran has held the combined pressure of the US and Israel at bay, not through overwhelming force, but through strategy and economic leverage, especially via oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Third, the wider consequences are profound. NATO’s credibility is shaken. Europe can no longer rely on US leadership. And new global alignments may now begin to emerge.

Fourth, markets are dangerously complacent. Share prices have risen, and oil has stabilised, but the risks of supply disruption, renewed conflict, and economic instability remain very real.

Finally, this conflict exposes a deeper issue: our dependence on fossil fuels. Energy and fertiliser supply chains remain fragile, and the risk of shortages has not gone away.

The conclusion is simple. The US is no longer the uncontested centre of global power. Iran has gained influence. Old alliances are under strain. And the new world order has not yet been formed.

Everything has already changed.

The question is whether we are willing to recognise that — and respond.