This deal won't hold

Markets are celebrating a Middle East peace deal. They shouldn't be. This is not peace; it is a US strategic retreat, repackaged as diplomacy. And like Neville Chamberlain's declaration of "peace in our time" in 1938, the optimism is not only premature but also dangerous.

Donald Trump agreed to this plan because he had no choice. He had to back down from the genocide he threatened. But what if this “peace” is nothing more than a pause in a conflict that has not been resolved?

In this video, I examine the contradictions at the heart of this deal. The United States appears to have secured none of its strategic objectives. Iran emerges stronger, not weaker. Israel’s role is uncertain, and its compliance is far from guaranteed.

This raises a fundamental question: is this peace, or is it a retreat dressed up as diplomacy?

I also explore the wider implications — from the growing importance of the Strait of Hormuz to the shifting balance of power in the Gulf, and the weakening of US credibility on the global stage.

Markets may be pricing in certainty. But the reality is that uncertainty has increased, and the risk of renewed conflict remains very real.

This may not be the end of the war. It may be the beginning of something far more significant.