Oilpocalypse - Why Putin's is the Only 'Winner' from War in the Middle East!

Silicon Bites Ep300 | 2026-03-11 | Oilpocalypse? Iran’s Hormuz shock meets Russia’s budget hole. How Iran’s war just threw Putin a lifeline. A few weeks ago, the mood in Moscow was not triumphalist. It was anxious. Because before the Iran war detonated global oil markets, Russia’s own Central Bank had already started telegraphing a much uglier reality: weaker oil, weaker exports, more budget strain, and a narrowing room for manoeuvre on rates and inflation. In February, the Bank of Russia cut its key rate to 15.5%, while official and semi-official reporting around that decision pointed to a much weaker outlook for Urals crude, with the bank’s baseline effectively built around $45 oil in 2026. Public reporting at the time said Urals had fallen as low as $41 a barrel, well below the assumptions used in the Russian budget.Oilpocalypse? Or Oil Resurrection? A few weeks ago, Russia had a problem. Its war economy is powered by not so much by cash flow from making and selling products, but from hydrocarbons flow. And oil-and-gas revenues still matter enormously to the federal budget. Reuters reported last week that oil and gas revenues account for roughly a quarter to a third of Russian budget income, and that falling oil prices were already being flagged as a key fiscal risk even before the Middle East crisis went fully incandescent. Reuters also noted that Moscow’s budget assumptions were under pressure from both lower oil prices and a stronger rouble, which means fewer roubles earned per export dollar.----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.gofundme.com/f/scaling-up-campaign-to-fight-authoritarian-disinformation----------SOURCES:Reuters, “US weighs easing Russian oil sanctions to cool global price surge, sources say” — March 9, 2026. Reuters, “Trump says US is waiving certain oil-related sanctions to ensure supply” — March 9, 2026. Reuters, “Trump weighs easing Russia sanctions, other measures to cool oil prices” — March 9, 2026.Reuters, “US energy chief defends waiver on Russian oil sanctions, blames fear for higher gas prices” — March 8, 2026.Reuters, “EU urges US to strictly enforce G7 price cap on Russian oil” — March 10, 2026. Reuters, “Russia is the only winner of Middle East war, EU’s Costa says” — March 10, 2026. Reuters, “Putin says energy crisis has arrived but Russia is ready to work with Europe” — March 9, 2026. Reuters, “Russian oil prices soar though tanker costs eat into gains” — March 10, 2026. Reuters, “Russia gets export boost from Iran war as price of oil to India surges” — March 6, 2026. Reuters, “Iran-fuelled oil price rally not enough to balance Russia’s budget” — March 3, 2026. Reuters, “Oil jumps to 2022 high on Iran war, falls after close as Russia sanctions in doubt” — March 8, 2026. Reuters, “Aramco sees ‘catastrophic consequences’ for oil markets if Hormuz strait remains blocked” — March 10, 2026. ----------SILICON CURTAIN LIVE EVENTS - FUNDRAISER CAMPAIGN Events in 2025 - Advocacy for a Ukrainian victory with Silicon Curtainhttps://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extrasOur events of the first half of the year in Lviv, Kyiv and Odesa were a huge success. Now we need to maintain this momentum, and change the tide towards a Ukrainian victory. The Silicon Curtain Roadshow is an ambitious campaign to run a minimum of 12 events in 2025, and potentially many more. Any support you can provide for the fundraising campaign would be gratefully appreciated. https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extrasWe need to scale up our support for Ukraine, and these events are designed to have a major impact. Your support in making it happen is greatly appreciated. All events will be recorded professionally and published for free on the Silicon Curtain channel. Where possible, we will also live-stream events.https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extras----------