It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Starmer’s Collapse, Farage’s Rise & Labour’s Leadership Crisis

Is UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer running out of time? In this data-driven breakdown, pollster James Johnson of J&L Partners joins Ryan to unpack the numbers shaping Britain’s political future—and the warning signs flashing for Labour.

From collapsing approval ratings to rising support for Nigel Farage, the polling tells a story of a leader losing authority, a party struggling to unify, and an electorate shifting in unpredictable ways. Johnson explains why Starmer may survive in the short term—but faces mounting pressure from within his own party, especially as key allies exit and potential rivals position themselves.

The conversation dives into the real power dynamics inside Labour, including the influence of figures like Peter Mandelson, the fallout from Morgan McSweeney’s departure, and the contenders quietly preparing leadership bids. Plus, what do upcoming by-elections and local races reveal about Labour’s vulnerability?

And perhaps most importantly—how does Farage factor into all of this? With Reform UK holding steady in the polls, Labour voters may be forced to choose between sticking with Starmer or rallying behind a new leader who can actually win.

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