February 06-12 | Ledger Recap

It is Friday, February 13, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.

In this episode of Prediction Market HQ, the team conducts a deep-dive portfolio audit. We analyze a frustrating moneyline loss on the KINGS and look at how the odds shifted during the PACERS and BUCKS matchup. Marcus breaks down the systemic failure in pricing the Bobby Portis prop and why paying a premium for 'safe' bets on the SEAHAWKS is a losing long-term strategy on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

We also discuss 'Missed Alpha' in the Joel Embiid markets and how to adjust your risk calibration to ensure your winning bet translates to maximum PnL. Whether you are trading NBA spreads or NFL team totals, understanding the implied probability of these odds is key to becoming a profitable trader.

Questions or comments? Reach out to: [e-mail]

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Read Transcript