Episode 1420: Think Tank: chronic oversupply will push crude oil prices below $60/barrel in 2026

Despite widespread geopolitical instability around the world, the most severe period of crude oil oversupply ever will depress prices, latest ICIS forecasts show.

- For 2026 global oil markets are in the largest period of oversupply we have ever seen

- Oversupply forecast by ICIS at 3 million barrels/day out of a roughly 100 million barrels/day market

- China oil demand growth has slowed drastically thanks to slowing economy and transition to electric vehicles

- OPEC is increasing supply, unwinding previous cuts

- Around 20% of global oil supplies pass through Strait of Hormuz so closing it could push prices above $100/barrel.

- End Q1/early Q2 Brent crude oil prices could decline under $60/barrel as fundamentals of oversupply take over from geopolitical concerns

- Overall prices could be 15% lower than in 2025, ICIS forecasts

- China-driven chemicals oversupply will persist in 2026

- Developing world outside China may become a driver of chemicals demand

- SABIC’s petrochemical sale ushers in new era of ownership by turnaround investors

In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS market development director John Richardson, ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Ajay Parmar, head of oil markets for ICIS.