Beyond the Numbers Why Data-Driven Leaders Still Make Costly Mistakes

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A bright dashboard can feel like certainty, but certainty is often the first illusion. We sit down with Dr. Mike Orkin, a seasoned statistician who has advised casinos and Fortune 100 leaders, to explore why smart people make bad calls when the numbers look right—and how to prevent it. From margin of error to the myth of tidy causation, Mike breaks down the difference between patterns worth acting on and patterns that will quietly burn your budget.

We dig into classic misreads—like soda sales “causing” polio or alcohol “causing” lung cancer—and show how hidden variables twist decisions. Then we step onto the casino floor to see probability without the storytelling: independent trials, house edge, and why betting limits protect profits. If you’ve ever heard of positive expected value, you’ll hear why it still fails without disciplined sizing, and how the Kelly criterion turns winning odds into sustainable advantage. Along the way, we tackle lotteries, survivor bias, and the uncomfortable truth that winners often emerge because enough people played, not because someone discovered a secret.

AI enters as both accelerant and trap. Large language models thrive on correlation and can hallucinate when the evidence runs dry. Mike shares practical guardrails for using AI in places like engineering and support—pairing models with domain expertise, testing for failure modes, and resisting the lure of overconfidence. We also zoom out to a leader’s mental model: when to think deterministically, when to think probabilistically, and how to blend data with context, incentives, and human will.

If you’re steering strategy, allocating capital, or building with AI, this conversation offers a clear checklist: respect uncertainty, size your bets, interrogate correlations, and hire experts who can “think with other people’s brains.” Subscribe, share with a data-loving friend, and leave a review with one insight you’ll apply this quarter.

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And don’t miss Grant McGaugh’s new book, First Light — a powerful guide to igniting your purpose and building a BRAVE brand that stands out in a changing world. - https://5starbdm.com/brave-masterclass/

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