TWIFO 479: A Year of Treacherous and Improbable Events

The first "January Lion" of 2026 has arrived. Join Mark Longo and Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading as they kick off the new year with a high-octane look at the futures options landscape. From the aftermath of a historic 2025 to the geopolitical shocks of the first week of January, this episode breaks down why the "old rules" of the commodity markets are being rewritten.

In This Episode:

• The 2025 Retrospective: A look back at a "once-in-50-year" event in the metals complex. Carley provides a candid "humbling" on the massive surge in gold and silver, and why 2025 was the year of the devoted trend follower.

• The Silver Beast: Silver dominated last year with a 140%+ gain. Carley and Mark discuss the "Reverse 2020" effect, the impact of triple-leveraged ETFs, and why trading Silver options right now requires nerves of steel and a massive margin account.

• Movers & Shakers: * The Light Side: A continuation of the metals rally (Silver, Platinum, Palladium) and a surprising 5% YTD surge in the Russell 2000 ($RUT).

  • The Dark Side: Energy struggles as WTI and Brent lead the losers, while Natural Gas faces a "trap door" at the $3.60 pivot.

• Equity Index Analysis: Why the "Mag 7" dominance is yielding to a Small-Cap catch-up play in the Russell. Plus, a strategy for "tail-risk nibbling" using deep out-of-the-money March and June puts.

• Energy & Geopolitics: The team breaks down the "Maduro effect" and why Venezuela's supply won't be a quick fix for the crude markets. Carley explores the possibility of a capitulation move in oil toward the low $40s.

• Viewer Q&A: The blurring lines between "trading" and "betting" as CME and FanDuel move closer together.

Market Volatility Snapshot (CVOL)

• Treasury Yield Vol: Pinning the needle at 78.9 (High for the week).

• Energy CVOL: Popping to 60.6 as geopolitical tensions rise.

• Metals CVOL: Easing slightly to 31.0 despite massive moves in the underlying.