Corn = "Added Sugars"... Will New Dietary Guidelines Hurt Demand??

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🍭 Sugar, Diet Guidelines & Corn Demand

The Trump administration is expected to advise Americans to cut back on sugar consumption under the new Dietary Guidelines set for release later this week. Americans—especially children—will be encouraged to consume no more than 10 grams of added sugar per meal. The guidelines are also expected to push lower consumption of highly processed foods and encourage higher daily protein intake.

The existing recommendation limiting saturated fat to no more than 10% of daily calories is expected to remain unchanged. One challenge could be implementation in schools, as many cafeterias aren’t equipped to prepare meals from scratch.

Corn plays a major role here. In 2023, added sugars—including high-fructose corn syrup and glucose/dextrose—accounted for roughly 770 million bushels of corn demand, or about 5.3% of total U.S. corn usage.

🌱 China Buys U.S. Soybeans

USDA reported a soybean flash sale on Tuesday, with exporters selling 336,000 mt (12 million bushels) to China for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.

According to traders, China’s state stockpiler Sinograin purchased roughly 10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week, totaling about 600,000 mt (22 million bushels) for shipment between March and May. Estimates suggest China’s total U.S. purchases are now nearing 10 mmt, representing more than 80% of the reported 12 mmt purchase agreement.

Additional flash sales may be reported today given ongoing trade chatter.

🚢 Brazil Export Update

Brazil’s soybean exports hit a record high in 2025, according to shipping agency Cargonave. Shipments rose 11.7% year over year to 108.68 mmt, driven by a record harvest and surging Chinese demand.

Soybean meal exports also reached a record 23.1 mmt, while corn exports totaled 41.7 mmt, up nearly 11% from last year. Brazil is once again projected to produce a record soybean crop in the coming season.

🚜 Farmer Sentiment Slips

U.S. farmer sentiment declined modestly in December. Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 136, down slightly from November. The drop was driven by weaker long-term expectations, while near-term sentiment held steadier.

Trade policy remains a major concern. Nearly one-fifth of farmers said they’re uncertain how tariffs will affect the ag economy long-term. Competition from Brazil continues to weigh heavily on soybean outlooks. Still, three-quarters of respondents believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction—the highest reading since the question was introduced.

📈 Stocks, Oil & Venezuela

U.S. equity markets rallied Tuesday despite geopolitical uncertainty. The Dow Jones climbed to a new record above 49,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hit record highs.

Markets appear to view recent U.S.–Venezuela developments as modestly bullish for oil supply. Late Tuesday, President Trump announced Venezuela would turn over 30–50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the U.S. In response, WTI crude fell to $56.25 per barrel.