How Can AI Forecasting And Prediction Markets Help Founders Make Better Decisions In Chaos? | Michael Ulin

In this BizBlend episode, host Sana cuts through the hype around "AI startups" and gets real about what actually moves the needle for founders in 2025. Michael Ulin, co founder and CEO of Tenki AI, unpacks how AI forecasting, prediction markets and probabilistic reasoning can support high stakes decisions instead of just adding more noise. He shares what 78 million dollars in fundraising and three AI companies have really taught him about product market fit, validation and focus. The conversation also dives into identity, leadership and why showing up as a gay founder with honesty and vulnerability changes how teams operate and how companies are built. If you are trying to scale responsibly in an AI saturated market, this episode gives you a grounded lens on risk, uncertainty and what "being early" actually needs to look like. About The Guest: Michael Ulin is a repeat AI founder and decision intelligence expert who has helped build and scale three AI companies that together have raised more than 78 million dollars. His work spans climate risk modeling at Zesty AI, legal intelligence at Paxton AI and now Tenki AI, which applies rigorous forecasting frameworks to real world prediction markets and strategic decisions. With a background that stretches from McKinsey market modeling to PhD level forecasting methodologies, Michael is focused on making serious decision science accessible to founders, investors and operators. He also speaks candidly about building companies as a gay entrepreneur and why authenticity and psychological safety are non negotiable in modern leadership. Key Takeaways: AI is not a strategy by itself. Successful AI companies still start with a real customer problem and a clear job to be done, not with "we do AI" as the pitch. The market does not care how hard you work if you are running in the wrong direction. In startups, validating the problem and direction matters more than raw hustle. Demand validation should happen before heavy engineering. Simple landing pages, no code MVPs and waitlists are low cost ways to test if anyone actually wants what you plan to build. Forecasting is decision making under uncertainty. Modern AI agents can now apply methods from economics, political science and game theory at scale, which used to require expensive specialists. All models are approximations, not reality. Good forecasting is about useful probabilistic ranges and scenarios, not perfect predictions or magical certainty. The most effective founders treat forecasting as an ongoing process. They use updated information and probabilities to continually refine strategy, not as a one off slide in a pitch deck. Democratized decision intelligence is possible. Tools like Tenki AI aim to bring rigorous forecasting to a much wider audience rather than keeping it locked up in elite institutions or consulting firms. Authentic leadership is a competitive advantage. Michael’s experience as a gay entrepreneur has pushed him to build teams around psychological safety, vulnerability and permission to experiment, which in turn drives better products and outcomes. How Listeners Can Connect With Michael Ulin: Explore Tenki AI and its forecasting tools. Website: https://trytenki.ai/ Connect with Michael on X: @MichaelUlin Connect with Michael on LinkedIn. Want to be a guest on BizBlend? DM on PM. Send me a message on PodMatch DM Me Here. https://www.podmatch.com/hostdetailpreview/avik Disclaimer. This video is for educational and informational purposes only. The views expressed are the personal opinions of the guest and do not reflect the views of the host or Healthy Mind By Avik™️. We do not intend to harm, defame or discredit any person, organization, brand, product, country or profession mentioned. All third party media used remain the property of their respective owners and are used under fair use for informational purposes. By watching, you acknowledge and accept this disclaimer. Healthy Mind By Avik™️ is a global platform redefining mental health as a necessity, not a luxury. Born during the pandemic, it’s become a sanctuary for healing, growth and mindful living. Hosted by Avik Chakraborty. storyteller, survivor, wellness advocate. this channel shares powerful podcasts and soul nurturing conversations on. • Mental Health & Emotional Well being • Mindfulness & Spiritual Growth • Holistic Healing & Conscious Living • Trauma Recovery & Self Empowerment With over 4,400+ episodes and 168.4K+ global listeners, join us as we unite voices, break stigma and build a world where every story matters. 👉 Subscribe and be part of this healing journey. Contact 💼 Brand. Healthy Mind By Avik™ 📧 Email. www.healthymindbyavik.com 📍 Based in. India & USA 🎙️ Open to collaborations, guest appearances, coaching and strategic partnerships. Let's connect to create a ripple effect of positivity. CHECK PODCAST SHOWS & BE A GUEST. 🎧 Listen our 17 Podcast Shows Here. https://...