S8 Ep111: 2/2 HEADLINE: Scenario: Russia Attacks NATO Member Estonia; Europe's "Kantian Dreams" and Lack of Readiness Prevent Article 5 Response GUEST: Jakub Grygiel

2/2 HEADLINE: Scenario: Russia Attacks NATO Member Estonia; Europe's "Kantian Dreams" and Lack of Readiness Prevent Article 5 Response GUEST: Jakub Grygiel

Jakub Grygiel analyzes the German book If Russia Wins, which outlines a scenario where Russia attacks NATO member Estonia around 2028 following a stalled conflict in Ukraine, capturing Narva and an island before halting its advance and creating confusion within NATO. Europeans, living in "Kantian dreams of eternal peace," prioritize a quick end to the conflict and fear escalation, and the scenario posits that the US President decides a World War III over a "tiny piece of land" is not worthwhile, leading Estonia to forego invoking NATO's Article 5 out of fear of alliance rejection. Grygielnotes that decades of demilitarization leave Europe unprepared for war, highlighting that US reinforcements could take 45 days to move and societies lack the political will to fund necessary rearmament.