#306 Chris Whalen: Markets Running Out of Buyers, Fed Flying Blind & Setting Up for 2018-Style Repo Crisis

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for the debut of his weekly segment "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Markets hit all-time highs this week before pulling back sharply as the Fed ended quantitative tightening amid growing liquidity stress in money markets—echoing the dangerous conditions of November 2018 when Chairman Powell nearly crashed the system. Whalen warns we're seeing the same warning signs: tightening liquidity, basis trades breaking down, and a Fed flying blind without proper tools to measure reserve availability. Meanwhile, cracks are appearing across markets—from Bitcoin's retreat below $100k to BlackRock's stunning 100% writedown on private debt it valued at par just weeks ago.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

The Wrap: Is it November 2018 All Over Again?: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira778

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction: New weekly segment "The Wrap with Chris Whalen"

0:42 - Markets this week: biggest decline since April

2:34 - Treasury General Account and bank reserves

6:50 - December rate cut now 50-50 toss up

8:14 - Economy still bubbling along robustly

8:39 - If big sell-off, Fed will start QE again

10:40 - Is it November 2018 all over again?

14:38 - Are we setting up for another repo crisis?

17:27 - Bitcoin fell below $95,000 - what's it signaling?

20:50 - Gold discussion: most investors under-invested

24:44 - Private credit concerns

25:48 - Government shutdown resolution

28:29 - Mortgage markets and housing policy

31:08 - Closing remarks and what to watch next week