Corn RALLIES to 4-Month High, USDA to Cut Production Estimate

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🌽 Corn Futures Rally Ahead of Key USDA Reports
Corn futures pushed higher on Thursday, with the Dec25 contract closing near $4.42, the best level in nearly five months. Traders are bracing for a sharp cut to national corn yield and production, with estimates ranging from 181.7 to 186 bpa — a wide spread tied to the 43-day government shutdown that limited USDA data flow. USDA will also publish all flash sales that occurred during the shutdown.

📝 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Today (11am CST)
Analysts expect a substantial downward revision to national corn yield and overall production. Even with reductions, the crop is still projected to be record large.
• Soybean yield & production expected to see modest declines
• US ending stocks for corn, soybeans & wheat expected to see slight increases
• Minimal changes expected for global ending stocks
• October reports were skipped due to the shutdown

🚢 US Export Sales Return After Shutdown
For the week ending Sept 25:
• Corn: 1.4 mmt—down from last week; Mexico top buyer
• Soybeans: 870,500 mt—up 20%; Netherlands top buyer
• Wheat: 315,900 mt—near low end of expectations; Nigeria top buyer

⛽ US Ethanol Output Falls; Margins Still Strong
Weekly ethanol production slipped to 1.08 mil bpd (-4.3% w/w). Stocks fell to 22.22 mil barrels. Compared to last year:
• Output: -2.7%
• Stocks: +1%
Margins remain solid, ranging from +10 to +30 cents across the Corn Belt based on Reuters’ spot prices for corn, DDGs, inputs, etc.

🇧🇷 Conab: Minor Changes to Brazil Corn & Soybean Outlook
Soybeans:
• Production: 177.6 mmt (record; +3.6% vs last year)
• Exports: 112.1 mmt (+5.1% y/y), reflecting expectations of sluggish US exports
Corn:
• Production: 138.8 mmt (-1.6% y/y)
• Exports: 46.5 mmt (+16% y/y)

🌧️ US Drought Monitor Update
Rainfall was mixed across the Corn Belt last week.
• Improving: NE Illinois, NW Indiana
• Worsening: East-central Illinois, SW Wisconsin
• High Plains: Mostly steady; slight deterioration in eastern Nebraska & parts of Oklahoma

US Areas in Drought:
🌽 Corn—29%
🫘 Soybeans—31%
🌾 Winter Wheat — 39%
🌾 Spring Wheat—17%
🐄 Cattle — 28%