China Buys US Wheat/Sorghum + USDA's Corn Yield # is Too High

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

Welcome back! Here’s what’s moving the markets this week 👇

🌾 China Steps Back Into U.S. Grain Markets
Reuters reports China purchased two cargoes of U.S. wheat — one soft white and one spring wheat — plus at least one shipment of U.S. sorghum. Futures for SRW and HRW hit fresh 3-month highs on the news.

💼 Tariff Rollbacks from Beijing
China’s Finance Ministry says retaliatory tariffs (up to 15%) on U.S. ag products will be lifted November 10.
That includes corn, wheat, and sorghum, though U.S. soybeans still face a 13% import tax, keeping them pricier than Brazilian supplies. Traders say major Chinese buyers are showing new interest in U.S. wheat.

🌽 Corn Harvest & Yields
Corn yields are mixed across the Corn Belt—strong in Minnesota and South Dakota but lower in Illinois and Iowa.
Wyffels Hybrids averaged 241 bpa across 724 plots (vs. 247 last year).
Many still expect near-record crops, but yield chatter is closer to 178–179 bpa, well below USDA’s 186.7 bpa.

🍶 Ethanol Sets a New Record
U.S. ethanol output hit 1.12 million barrels/day, the highest ever.
Stocks: 22.66 million barrels
Margins: +15 ¢ to +35 ¢ across the Corn Belt (Reuters data)
Strong corn grind and robust demand continue to support prices.

🌱 Brazil’s Fertilizer Gamble
Brazil Potash Corp. is investing $2.5 billion in an Amazon potash mine, aiming for self-sufficiency by 2030.
Currently 90% of fertilizer imports come from Russia — a huge risk.
Chinese investors are reportedly eyeing future supply deals tied to crop exports.

🐄 Cattle Market Meltdown
Cattle futures collapsed to limit-down levels Wednesday.
Despite Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins confirming the U.S.–Mexico border remains closed to feeder imports, her mention that Trump wants to reopen it added to panic.
Even with strong fundamentals — record-low cow herd, solid beef demand — government price-control talk has shattered trader confidence.