My prediction on what is going to happen next

Here are the main types of events that typically cause the 10-year yield to drop:

Economic slowdown or recession signs

Weak GDP, rising unemployment, or falling consumer spending make investors expect lower future interest rates.

Example: A bad jobs report or slowing manufacturing data often pushes yields lower.

Federal Reserve rate cuts (or expectations of cuts)

If the Fed signals or actually cuts rates, long-term yields like the 10-year typically decline.

Markets anticipate lower inflation and slower growth ahead.

Financial market stress or geopolitical tension

During crises (wars, banking issues, political instability), investors seek safety in Treasuries — pushing prices up and yields down.

Lower inflation or deflation data

When inflation slows more than expected, the “real” return on Treasuries looks more attractive, bringing yields down.

Dovish Fed comments or data suggesting easing ahead

Even before actual rate cuts, if the Fed hints it might ease policy, yields often fall in anticipation.

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