STRAT | November 2, 2025 | U.S. Naval Pressure Mounts on Venezuela Amid Cartel Ties

In this episode of STRAT, retired Marine Intelligence Officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer analyzes escalating U.S. military operations targeting fast boats and semi-submersibles linked to narcotics trafficking in the Caribbean and East Pacific. He explores the mounting tension between Washington and Venezuela as American naval and air forces, including F-35s and strategic bombers, position off the Venezuelan coast. With the Maduro regime accused of deep ties to the Soles cartels—designated as a terrorist organization—Kempfer examines how the U.S. is framing the mission under counterterrorism logic. He also discusses the geopolitical stakes, the weakness within Venezuela’s military, and whether growing U.S. actions could precipitate the fall of Nicolás Maduro’s government.

Takeaways:

· The U.S. has launched strikes on cartel-linked vessels in the Caribbean and East Pacific.

· A Marine Expeditionary Unit and carrier task force are operating off Venezuela.

· F-35s are based in Puerto Rico, signaling possible escalation.

· The FAA’s extended airspace warning hints at planned operations.

· Maduro’s regime is tied to the Soles and Tren de Aragua cartels.

· U.S. actions may include leadership strikes if cartels equal terrorism.

· Maduro’s fall could reshape Venezuelan politics and U.S. influence.

· Strategic calculations suggest the U.S. cannot afford inaction.

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