Corn Finally Wakes Up - Start of a Rally??

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🌽 Corn Market Turns Higher
Corn and soybean futures advanced Thursday, supported by smaller-than-expected yields and harvest delays from upcoming rains. Dec ’25 corn added 5¢ to $4.22 while Nov ’25 soybeans climbed 4¢ to $10.11. Strong domestic crush demand and tighter spreads helped fuel optimism. Corn calendar spreads have rallied sharply—slow farmer selling and steady ethanol demand likely helped. 📈

🇨🇳 China’s Soybean Dilemma
High Brazilian premiums ($2.80–$2.90 over futures) may force China to tap its state reserves as crush margins remain negative. With 43.5 mmt of soybeans in storage—the largest on record—China has room to draw down stocks as it battles through the trade war.

🐄 Cattle Prices Hit New Highs
Live cattle surged to record levels, driven by tight supplies and border closures to Mexican cattle imports. Fat cattle traded $240/cwt in parts of the Midwest. The Trump administration says it’s working to lower beef prices, possibly through new import deals.

⛽ Ethanol Stays Strong
US ethanol production rose to 1.07 million bpd last week while stocks fell slightly. Margins across the Corn Belt remain solid—between 20–50¢ positive, according to Reuters.

🏈 CME Launches “Prediction Futures”
CME Group plans to roll out new contracts linked to sports and economic outcomes, partnering with FanDuel. These products could shake up prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.

🌦️ Drought Update
USDA data shows 38% of the Corn Belt still under drought, though that’s improved from last year’s 53%. The worst areas remain in parts of Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, and South Dakota.