#327: Market Update August 2025 – Second Wind for Brisbane, Adelaide & Perth, Listings Stay Tight & Rents Fuel Inflation Concerns

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In this latest market update episode, the Trio unpack the findings in the August data, and they reflect on the cash rate cut and how 2025's third cash rate cut has impacted the early spring market.

🏡 The Property Trio: Market Movers, Segmentation & City Standouts It's interesting to see the perennial performers of 2023 and 2024—Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth are still delivering. Brisbane’s 1.2% monthly growth even pipped Darwin's (1.1%), while Perth clocked 1.1% and Adelaide added 0.9%. Darwin continues to lead the nation on an annualised basis, but the Trio ask: how much longer can these hot markets run? Cate weighs in on Melbourne, where official growth numbers appear soft compared with the strong buyer competition she’s experiencing on the ground. She attributes this to segmentation, noting that upgraders—often emotionally driven and recently boosted by interest rate cuts—are pushing the middle of the market hardest. Mike backs this up with data: the 50th percentile is outperforming both the bottom and top quartiles.

The Trio also highlight that national growth is broadly positive, with every capital except Hobart showing gains over the last three months. Melbourne may be lagging on paper, but it’s just 3% shy of its 2022 peak—a sign of resilience and potential upside. Dave contrasts quartile data across cities, noting that in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, the lowest quartile is leading, suggesting investors and latecomers may be driving the final leg of this cycle.

🏡 The Property Trio: Spring Stock, Footy Fever & Market Sentiment Spring has arrived, but for property watchers, it doesn’t quite feel like the floodgates have opened yet. Cate reminds listeners that we’re only in early September—and for Melbourne, (and much of Victoria), the property market doesn’t hit full stride until after the AFL season finishes. In a city where everything stops for footy, October is traditionally when listing volumes surge.

📈 Agents are reporting stronger appraisal activity and plenty of auction dates locked in, but stock levels remain tight.

🤔 This supply/demand imbalance creates a tricky chicken-and-egg scenario. Vendors don’t want to list until they’ve secured their next home, but in a rising market, especially with rare or fussy briefs, hesitation can stall the cycle. Dave and Mike weigh in on the balancing act sellers face between locking in strong results and avoiding homelessness.

📊 Mike brings the data lens to national listings. Darwin and Brisbane are showing sharp annual contractions in stock, aligning with their recent strong performances. Meanwhile, Melbourne and Hobart are down year-on-year, possibly reflecting weaker sentiment and more cautious vendors. Dave stresses the importance of comparing numbers to five-year averages, reminding listeners that spring always swells supply, but buyer demand doesn’t fluctuate nearly as much.

🌏 The Trio then tackle a puzzling consumer sentiment report: despite an interest rate cut sparking buyer activity on the ground, confidence in the economy has dropped. Global conflict and local unrest may be weighing on Australians’ psyche, even while house price expectations remain firm. This lively episode blends property insights with cultural context, giving listeners a glimpse of spring 2025’s early signs, the quirks of timing around footy season, and the broader forces shaping confidence in our markets.

Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/09/15/ep-327-august-2025-market-update/