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north korea united states nuclear war commission report jeffrey lewis nuclear weapons donald trump south korea nuclear attack president trump north korean kim jong-un korea and japan tom clancy world war new york foreign policy arms control speculative novel government report
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Amazon Customer
1.0 out of 5 stars Politically biased, immature vitriol!
Reviewed in the United States on April 8, 2019
Verified Purchase
"Pathetic piece of work."

The book had great potential and I was even prepared to give it a fair shake after reading the other reviews, but Lewis squanders it by very lazy writing and an out of place, inappropriate, zealous, emotional, irrational loathing of President Trump not worthy of a PhD. Sure the bits about the ACTUAL speculation when it comes to armed conflict with North Korea are interesting. But what I do not find interesting is the fact that Lewis writes unintelligent, pitiful, immature and fantasy-like depictions of Trump that sound like they were co authored by Alec Baldwin. Trump calling a nuclear strike on NYC "beautiful", insisting his golf score be put in the "commission report", getting into a brawl with the military attaché carrying the nuclear football, and Lewis constantly citing "unnamed sources" in the White House as evidence for his speculations. All of these things I found insulting to a reader like myself who just wanted a stimulating, creative, futuristic novel about a hot button foreign policy issue without political bias. Lewis disappoints in every way by his lack of creativity, intellect, and professionalism. Don't waste your money or time!
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StukaFox
4.0 out of 5 stars Good, but it could have been so much better
Reviewed in the United States on August 7, 2018
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Jeff Lewis' foray into the future history of a 48-hour nuclear war launched by North Korea is a page-turner to be sure, but had he taken some story-telling clues from Strieber's classic nuke war history, "Warday", The 2020 Commission Report could have been a classic in the genre.

The writing is breezy, and a little too much so. Not to say Lewis doesn't tell a good story -- in fact, he has the makings of a great story -- but there's precious little meat on the skeleton of his plot. He spins a believable scenario of how N. Korea ended up lobbing nukes at everything within missile's reach, and the lead-in is compelling, but once the nukes do start flying, he seems to lose interest in his own story. Telling the story of what happened after the nukes started popping off, we're treated to an in-depth look at what President Trump is doing (and not doing), but as for the millions roasted in the nuclear fires, their voices are relegated to mere snippets of eyewitness accounts -- and those stories are incredibly airy, mostly variants on "oh gosh, it was awful!".

Even in describing the aftermath of this 48-hour war, which would have been worthy of a book itself, Lewis seems to have lost all the intensity that made the ealier chapters such a good read. He talks about public health emergencies and a touch of global cooling, but somehow leaves out what the financial cost of such a war would be to the United States and how the war impacted the rest of the world. There's almost a "and they lived happily ever after" feel to the final chapter, as if Lewis was trying to get the book out the door before the summer reading season petered out.

"Warday" deserves an updated successor, and the future-history genre' can always use another story; that's what makes the shortfalls in The 2020 Commission Report so disappointing. Adding more details about the effect of war itself, a little more depth to the story-telling, and a fuller conclusion could have propelled this book from just a fun read to being a classic in the nuke war canon along with Alas, Babylon and On The Beach.
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Mal Warwick
TOP 500 REVIEWER
5.0 out of 5 stars Marketed as a novel but largely based on factual information
Reviewed in the United States on August 15, 2018
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Recent news reports suggest that a North Korean nuclear attack is distinctly within the realm of possibility. And this new novel makes clear how it might actually happen.

Under the shadow of the nuclear umbrella
I grew up under the shadow of the nuclear umbrella. And, no, I wasn't the least bit reassured that that umbrella was supposedly there to defend us all.

** In high school, some of my classmates' parents built fallout shelters. Grade school kids were taught to duck under their desks in the event of a nuclear attack.
** As a college student, I lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis in a panic; my best friend hopped into a car and drove to the woods on Michigan's Northern Peninsula.
** I read the work of Herman Kahn, who famously asserted that the United States could win a nuclear war with casualties in the tens of millions.
** And I read John Hersey's Hiroshima, learned about the damage in utero from nuclear fallout, and became familiar with the concept of nuclear winter.

To this day, I shudder at the thought that miscalculation, mechanical error, or misguided policies could unleash nuclear weapons upon a world that will never be ready for them. Next to global warming, nuclear weapons remain the greatest existential threat to the human race. So it's no accident that I rushed to buy a copy of Jeffrey Lewis' shocking new novel that imagines a North Korean nuclear attack on the United States in March 2020.

A plausible scenario
Much of the 2020 Commission Report is entirely factual. As Lewis states on the copyright page at the front of the book, "Everything that takes place before August 7, 2018, is true and supported by the endnotes, which are also true. Everything that takes place after that date is invented." However, since I have read a great deal about both North Korea and the Trump Administration, I know that the North Korean nuclear attack Lewis invented is entirely plausible. And the survivors' testimonies that dramatize the impact of the war are taken largely verbatim from "the stories of the Hibakusha—the Japanese people who survived the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945."

Miscommunication, misinformation, and miscalculation
The 2020 Commission Report describes the sequence of miscommunications, misinformation, and miscalculation that leads North Korea to unleash "54 nuclear-armed ballistic missiles against targets in South Korea and Japan," resulting in the immediate loss of 1.4 million lives and five million more wounded. Hours later, North Korea launches 13 nuclear missiles to demolish Pearl Harbor, the US naval base at San Diego, Washington DC, Trump Tower, and Mar-a-Lago. Although nearly half the missiles fail to reach their targets, more than enough do. The attack virtually demolishes Tokyo, Seoul, New York City, and Northern Virginia. (None of the missiles are intercepted by American antimissile defenses.)

Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump share the blame for this catastrophe
Much of the blame for the North Korean nuclear attack rests on Kim Jong-un. He is clearly responsible for launching these devastating attacks. However, is is clear in Lewis' account that Donald Trump and members of his administration share a large measure of guilt as well. Trump's massive ego, his stubborn belief in conspiracy theories and other fantasies, his distrust even of those who are most devoted to him, and his habit of insulting his adversaries via Twitter—all contribute to the debacle. So does the unwillingness of his staff to give him bad news or contradict him.

The human cost of the war
Understandably, Lewis' book focuses on the human cost of this terrible one-day war. He details the immediate impact of the nuclear explosions themselves, the firestorms that were generated in several cities, the massive numbers of deaths from radiation poisoning and cancer, and the famine caused by the sudden, extreme drop in global temperatures that reduced crop yields worldwide. What is missing from this account are the economic consequences.

In the scenario Lewis portrays, with nuclear weapons devastating Seoul, Tokyo, New York City, and Northern Virginia, it's obvious that one of the speediest and most noticeable effects of the war would be financial. The world economy would go into a tailspin. The dollar would collapse. World trade would take a nosedive. With hundreds of trillions of dollars needed to rebuild, and economic activity crippled, Manhattan, Tokyo, and Seoul are unlikely ever to recover. And the 1.75-degree lower temperature Lewis predicts to occur in each of the three years following the war might be only the first phase of a nuclear winter. A North Korean nuclear attack on South Korea, Japan, and the United States, despite the relatively small number of weapons involved, could well set back the human race as much as a century.

About the author
Jeffrey Lewis is an academic expert on nuclear proliferation and geopolitics. He has written two books on China's nuclear weapons program.
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Harry Buckle
5.0 out of 5 stars Compulsory reading for all. Not Trump or Kim bashing.
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on September 26, 2018
Verified Purchase
A terrifying reality, with occasions of black humour. The premise being, posturing politics and confused communications have resulted in the thinkable happening. A Nuclear attack from North Korea-hitting much of South Korea, Japan and various Trump spots in the USA...Florida, New York City and some others.
It is NOT a rabid anti Trump book, nor is it gung ho against North Korea.
In clinical- but very readable style - it goes through the facts of the matter- had it occurred.
What worked, what likely didn't work, the human FUBAR effect...with very little Trump and Kim extremes actually affecting the whole scenario or the result.
So as I said...not just Trump or Kim bashing, and should be required reading for supporters and anti's -of both of them.
Read -learn- and face up to the sad reality, that missile US defence systems are unproven, unworking and unworkable. But of course no one's owning up to that because they cost a lot of tax dollars , and the politicos who spent the money aren't going to tell you, and neither are the military.
They won't even work despite the long time available from rocket launch (almost 40 minutes from NK to East Coast USA.) mainly because the window of effectiveness is only about ten minutes...and that's mostly in the period during which the US would be figuring out what was going on. But most of the above knew that already.
In the events scenario : Basic South Korea defence and retaliation to the accidental shooting down of a passenger plane-(yes that again, but it is a constant reality that has occurred many times in the real world), shuts down most of NK's communication systems so -either Mr Kim pushes the Button , or as it would be in reality- unable to contact The Boss - The Button gets pushed by others. Those being NK standing orders...although not standing orders in the USA.
And then we come to the searing aftermath...despite several millions killed in Japan, The Korea's and the USA, the nations survive...and embark on re-building.
'The Official Report' on what happened, then tells with searing reality of some of the effects of such an event or 'Nuclear Accident'- for that is what it really is.
The author's first person sources of those descriptions and the facts contained therein, are impeccable, well researched and -they- are such a terrifying reality that reading this book should be compulsory reading for all...including those involved at all levels.
Do not let the book title- or my 'compulsory' reading comment- or your apathy about 'yet more Trump and Kim stuff-(it's not)- put you off. Read it...and share it... for all of our sakes.
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Mr. T. O. Womack
2.0 out of 5 stars Excellent setup but misses the landing
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 28, 2018
Verified Purchase
I suppose the conceit of the book obliges it to take a very America-centric focus, but I felt the direct reuse of Hiroshima testimony missed the chance to observe how 2020 America and 1945 Japan differed, and I really wanted to know more about the aftermath of unprecedented disaster - that may not be something anyone could write, but World War Z did a better job.
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Adam
5.0 out of 5 stars A very plausible end of days
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 19, 2020
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A nuclear nightmare triggered by a rats nest of cause and effect is an uncomfortably possible eventuality. Especially when you have two paranoid, ego driven maniacs driving affairs. Trump is here represented in all his cretinous stupidity and venality, acting pretty much on the same level as he does in day to day reality. He sends a tweet that is one of the triggers for this apocalypse, his aides and staffers and advisers focus on managing his ego and undoing the potential damage of his whims, it should all feel wearyingly familiar. That said, knocking Trump is not the aim of this book, it just tries to imagine how he would react given the data we have especially on his reactions to the Pandemic, to a crisis situation. The paranoid chain of decision making of Kim Jong Un is also feels utterly plausible. And the causes of this calamity stem right back to the actions of previous administrations on setting out a geo-political framework that simultaneously creates and then corners aggressive nations.
The writer should know what he is writing about, being a Foreign Policy and arms control expert. Starting with accidental shooting down of an South Korean airliner that is triggered in turn by heightened sensitivities of North Korea following US and S Korean war games, events spiral as S Korea unilaterally decide a limited conventional strike, keen to show they can act independently of the US. But Kim, helped by the Trumps antagonistic Tweeting, believes S Korea and Trump are acting together, and hits the nuclear button, at first at US targets in S Korea and Japan, hoping this will cow the US, when it doesn't, he launches an IBM strike against US cities.
Everything in this books seems plausible. I read it in two sittings, finding it very hard to put down. Much is made of the black humour in the blurb, but I found that to be understated, which is very welcome. Any humour lies in the bizarre strangeness of events, and the impossible clumsiness of human actions, like slapstick from Hell. This is not about trying out-strange Strangelove or point scoring or cheap sensationalism. Movingly, the writer uses the real testimony of Hiroshima survivors to inform the witness testimonies of survivors in this book.
Brilliant, chilling, unforgettable.
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FG
4.0 out of 5 stars Scary , 'lifelike' behaviour of P Trump. Who needs fiction?
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 26, 2018
Verified Purchase
The conduct of President Trump and his lifestyle read like the daily reports from the US about his behaviour. However, some more context about Chinese and Russian reactions to events might have rounded off the 'report' as would a bit more about the post-attack recovery health issues given the relatively few cities actually hit. Given the loss of US personnel and material in S Korea, the ability to mount such a big conventional ai campaign with depleted local support seems unlikely?
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Amazon Customer
5.0 out of 5 stars The worrying plausibility of the premise makes it a terrifying, but interesting read.
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 24, 2018
Verified Purchase
As others have mentioned, this is one of the scariest books I have read in a while. At times it felt a little too close to reality and there were points where I found myself angry at the state of current US politics (and the people involved in it) because of how easily and quickly it feels this could all come to pass.

Very well researched and contains footnotes and references with a lot of useful and educational information.
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