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Philip Tetlock

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  • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction | Philip Tetlock,Dan Gardner

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

    • UNABRIDGED (9 hrs and 31 mins)
    • By Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
    • Narrated By Joel Richards
    Overall
    (1560)
    Performance
    (1348)
    Story
    (1348)

    Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight.

    Brent says: "overwhelming exposition"
  • Expert Political Judgment: How Good is it? How can We Know? | Philip E. Tetlock

    Expert Political Judgment: How Good is it? How can We Know?

    • UNABRIDGED (9 hrs and 48 mins)
    • By Philip E. Tetlock
    • Narrated By Anthony Haden Salerno
    Overall
    (33)
    Performance
    (30)
    Story
    (30)

    The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This audiobook fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future.

    Henry Carr says: "Highly engaging. Listen at 2x speed"
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