Leo Schmidt, founder of family office River Eddy Capital, rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on economy, markets, and where to invest capital in what may be a 'stagflation lite' environment.

• "Labor markets are way too hot." There will be "no landing" (1:48);
• Non-farm payrolls came out much stronger than anticipated. What this says about the labor market (4:59);
• 'Stagflation lite' (8:31);
• Our views of credit creation are outdated. The shadow banking system has replaced commercial banks as the primary source of credit. What this means (11:59);
• The Federal Reserve probably needs to cut rates. Could they? Probably not -- this year (22:21);
• What does an investor do now? First up: Stocks that are AI/Nvidia (NVDA) plays. Celestica (CLS), Flex (FLEX), Sanmina (SANM), Jabil (JBL) (27:51);
• Pharma spin-outs: Haleon (HLN), Kenvue (KVUE), Organon (OGN), Viatris (VTRS) (31:54);
• Dollar stores, especially Dollar Tree (DLTR), are poised to outperform once there is an economic slowdown (39:07);
• The bullish case for pipeline companies (46:59).

• Stock markets are pricing in a lot of optimism. Just how unrealistic is that? (1:19);
• What is there to indicate the economy could slow this year or even next? (4:34);
• A recession may be years away rather than months under current conditions. But conditions, as we know, can change quickly... (8:58);
• There is a precedence to interest rates going up dramatically without it causing an immediate and dramatic entrenchment in economic growth (11:52);
• Tech stocks might be overvalued but comparisons to the dot-com bubble are unfair and inaccurate -- and may preclude a spectacular bust (16:10);
• Today's economic expansion is income-driven. Not a result of credit expansion (18:13);
• What kinds of indicators should investors study to spot a slowdown in this particular type of economic activity? (30:45);
• Regional banks are for the most part fairly priced at present... (35:50).

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Ayesha Tariq, founder of Macro Visor, rejoins the podcast to discuss her views on the economy, markets, and where investors should look for opportunities.

• The macro set-up and why people are talking about stagflation (1:56);
• The K-shaped economy and the damage being done (3:31);
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell claims there's no stag and no flation. Is he wrong? (It wouldn't be the first time) (8:50);
• Faced with this backdrop, what does one do as an investor? (13:03);
• China: There are still reasons to worry, even though the bleeding from the property market has abated a bit... (15:58);
• India: long term growth story. Also copper, oil, and Japan (17:11);
• The guest's favorite areas for opportunity right now: UK and India (21:07);
• A long-term concern is the fiscal situation in the US (22:00).