The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't

By: Nate Silver

Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain

Updated for 2020 with a new Preface by Nate Silver.

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good - or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary - and dangerous - science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential listen.

©2012 Nate Silver (P)2012 Penguin Audio

Critic reviews

"One of the more momentous books of the decade." (The New York Times Book Review)

"Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise.... Lively prose - from energetic to outraged...illustrates his dos and don’ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics...[the] chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I’ve seen...even the noise makes for a good read." (New York Times)

"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction - without academic mathematics - cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." (New York Review of Books)

Not really anything new.

What did you like best about The Signal and the Noise? What did you like least?

It was clear and generally well presented (accessible to a wide audience). I was well aware that people generally are not good at making predictions, relying too heavily on their heuristics and biases (e.g. failure to use prior probabilities as called for by Bayesian statistics); and the importance of putting "band widths" around probability estimates. I also thought that much too much text was devoted to each of the major topics covered (e.g. weather forecasting, political forecasts, economic forecasts, picking stocks, gambling/poker strategies, etc.). These sections could have been considerably shorter.

What was your reaction to the ending? (No spoilers please!)

"Is that all there is?"

Which character – as performed by Mike Chamberlain – was your favorite?

N/A

Could you see The Signal and the Noise being made into a movie or a TV series? Who should the stars be?

No

Any additional comments?

Generally disappointing, in that it did not expand my knowledge -- though I don't fault the book, as I've read widely in this area.

Enlightening, entertaining, surprising.

Where does The Signal and the Noise rank among all the audiobooks you’ve listened to so far?

One of the most interesting books I have ever read.

What was the most compelling aspect of this narrative?

Humorous voice, easy to follow. I could believe that the narrator was the author.

Great book, well suited for audio

There are a lot of charts in the text version, but it isn't necessary to the story as they aren't often directly referenced in the narrative but are more optional illustrations of concepts. Very good overall

fascinating

especially today, this is extremely useful and insightful! highly recommended for anyone trying to understand today's political landscape.

Good and though provoking information.

The book is a little dry. I was hoping for something more in the realm of freakonmics or Blink, but, the information was good. It took me a long time to finish, which is my key indicator for whether the book was good. If you're into data, I would encourage you to check this one out, but otherwise, I'd stay clear.

The best critical thinking book to read now

Would you listen to The Signal and the Noise again? Why?

Yes - profound lessons in how to think and solve problems

What was one of the most memorable moments of The Signal and the Noise?

Thinking like a fox.

What does Mike Chamberlain bring to the story that you wouldn’t experience if you just read the book?

A hint at humor.

What’s the most interesting tidbit you’ve picked up from this book?

So many! Must read again

excellent, ages well

I enjoyed the book when I listened to it in in 2013 and again in 2017. it ages very well. timeless observations throughout book

Intellectually engaging, but too long.

Struggled to finish it, was too long for the ultimate takeaway of the book. Still an excellent overview of data analysis and predictions.

awesome story

I highly recommend that solid audio book to anyone interested in reports, analytics or improving they're forecasting ability

Much Signal, Little Noise.

Helps someone without a math degree understand statistics in a more practical manner. Gives us insights to our own biases, and shows where the human brain falls short in forecasting and over recognized patterns that arnt there while missing some that are.