The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't

By: Nate Silver

Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain

Length: 16 hrs and 21 mins

Publisher's summary

Updated for 2020 with a new Preface by Nate Silver.

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good - or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary - and dangerous - science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential listen.

©2012 Nate Silver (P)2012 Penguin Audio

Critic reviews

"One of the more momentous books of the decade." (The New York Times Book Review)

"Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise.... Lively prose - from energetic to outraged...illustrates his dos and don’ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics...[the] chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I’ve seen...even the noise makes for a good read." (New York Times)

"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction - without academic mathematics - cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." (New York Review of Books)

Good philosophy on data

Nate gives a great view of how big data can and should work (or not). I particularly liked that while some case studies had clear central messages, he avoided reductionism and reapplied lessons from other chapters.

Very interesting book - Thought Provoking

This was a great book, loved the discussions on baseball, odds and the many topics the author covers. Its a very hard book to describe though. I never got bored and every chapter offered me something new and fresh. Be a great book for anyone in marketing or SEO. I would recommend it. Worth the money.

I loved it

I teach statistics and this book is one of the best stats books I have ever read. the examples are amazing

Great book

Approachable introduction to using Bayesian probability in real life. An entertaining book for people who want to be a little bit smarter.

Awesome

If you could sum up The Signal and the Noise in three words, what would they be?

bayesian statistical predictions.

I am being forced to write additional words to meet a 15 word minimum even though I was asked to sum up the book in 3 words

Any additional comments?

just read it. it's fun for all ages!

Solid Application of Statistics.

I'm a math geek who has casually followed Silver's work since he came on the national radar after the 2008 Presidential election. In this book, he uses his own mathematical background and many interviews to show how probabilistic statistics (vs more deterministic statistics) gives us great insight into a wide range of issues, from the mundane yet popular topics of poker and baseball - things he has personal experience with using statistics on - to the seemingly more substantial issues including weather forecasting, political polling, climate change and even terrorism. And overall, he is very careful to stick to his central point: follow the numbers, no matter where they lead - which he calls the "signal". Very highly recommended for anyone trying to have a genuine discussion on really almost any topic.

Bowing at the Climate Altar

Someone writes a decent book that is interesting to read. Inevitably there is a climate chapter. Inevitably the chapter undermines your perception of the entire book. The bias in this book is obvious and this from an author that claims to appreciate the problem of bias.

Separate the signal from the noise ... in all things. Including this compromised book.

Good info for continuous improvement

Would you recommend this audiobook to a friend? If so, why?

If your looking for how Nate did some great research and did some very good successes I recommend the book. If you like a story with drama, mystery and suspense it is a little dry and not for you.

Awesome, awesome book. Must read!

It's always refreshing to read a different way to tell the same stories. This book is a must read for anyone, absolutely anyone, that wants to have a better grasp of what it perceives as real.

Good material- somewhat boring delivery

This is a book worth reading even for applied mathematicians/statisticians for whom the theories presented in the book are basic knowledge. That being said, the delivery was a little flat for someone who listens to audiobooks for entertainment while commuting.