The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't

By: Nate Silver

Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain

Length: 16 hrs and 21 mins

Publisher's summary

Updated for 2020 with a new Preface by Nate Silver.

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good - or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary - and dangerous - science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential listen.

©2012 Nate Silver (P)2012 Penguin Audio

Critic reviews

"One of the more momentous books of the decade." (The New York Times Book Review)

"Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise.... Lively prose - from energetic to outraged...illustrates his dos and don’ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics...[the] chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I’ve seen...even the noise makes for a good read." (New York Times)

"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction - without academic mathematics - cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." (New York Review of Books)

Great thesis, could be shorter.

Loved it, but could've got to the same point with less anecdotes and examples. Although I loved every anecdote and story, I got the main idea with just a couple of them.

More Relevant Than Ever.

If all of the conflicting studies about, well, just about everything have your head spinning, this book won't tell you which are correct. But it will help you understand why there are so many differing interpretations of the same data, and why most of those are wrong.
Silver doesn't try to make you into a statistician, but he does a masterful job, using familiar examples that we encounter in everyday life, of illustrating the strengths and limitations of the statistical concepts and human foibles behind news headlines, weather forecasts, medical trials, and other decision-influencers.
No math expertise needed, just the willingness to think a couple of levels deeper than usual.
First published eight years ago, but more relevant than ever today.

Interesting, educational, and entertaining

What did you love best about The Signal and the Noise?

The real-world examples for each concept made complex theories and concepts easy to understand

Any additional comments?

If you want to learn about why things work in the world, this is a fantastic book! Get it, it’s worth it!

Interesting tidbits, but a bit scattered.

Any additional comments?

Interesting book about forecasting, statistics, and why simply having more data is not going to result in better predictions. The writing is mostly entertaining and accessible to all, but if you're interested in the details there's enough there that I was able to correctly answer 3/4 questions on a Bayesian theory test a friend coincidentally posted on Facebook while I was reading this book.

The direction seems a little scattered though, it's more like a series of case studies or vignettes without a clear and cohesive direction. The most important information in the book (in my opinion) is Bayesian theory and how we can and should use it to keep our forecasts realistic; yet it isn't mentioned till over half way into the book and then isn't consistently emphasized through till the end. The rest of the book is examples of predictions gone right or wrong and examinations why; interesting but a little disjointed seeming at times. Still, very interesting read and worth picking up.

Good Discussion about the misuse of data...

While some information is dated, it is still a great discussion of the use and misuse of data. I really enjoyed the discussions on weather, climate, earthquakes and terrorism. The stockmarket discussions were good but seemed oversimplified. Best takeaway was that in many engagements being average will cost you money.

good book on statistics and predictions

I really liked this book, it was quite engaging given the material. Not heavy on mathematical details details, those looking for this aspect may be better served elsewhere.

If only everyone could live in Bayes land

While I am used to living probablisticly from my decades of games, Nate does an excellent job of breaking down many large examples into bite sized chunks. I think everyone should listen and really think about how likely things are to happen.

Understanding how stats work

Interesting, non-pedantic, good examples.
Some of the examples could not be very visual to everyone as he made important studies using sports datasets. However, as he said, sports record huge amounts of data since long ago... and it makes them a good field to base statistical studies on.

Rich survey of application of projections in everyday life

Very interesting exploration of impact and uses of forecasting techniques across various fields from sports to polling to fighting terror.

Really is real education in the real art/science

Scary and useful. Necessary to read to understand our world. Well written with some necessary repeats.