The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't

By: Nate Silver

Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain

Length: 16 hrs and 21 mins

Publisher's summary

Updated for 2020 with a new Preface by Nate Silver.

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good - or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary - and dangerous - science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential listen.

©2012 Nate Silver (P)2012 Penguin Audio

Critic reviews

"One of the more momentous books of the decade." (The New York Times Book Review)

"Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise.... Lively prose - from energetic to outraged...illustrates his dos and don’ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics...[the] chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I’ve seen...even the noise makes for a good read." (New York Times)

"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction - without academic mathematics - cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." (New York Review of Books)

Excellent Insight

Excellent Insight into what's important, what's not and how to differentiate between the two states.

nice performance of some compelling stories

Logged the whole thing in a couple days while driving. Great experience kept me engaged the whole time

This is more than a book about statistics

Silver accomplishes a difficult task - statistics are not only understandable they are fascinating. Silver applies his grasp of statistics to real world problems and provides insights into how to navigate financial markets, public threats such weather forecasting or predicting terrorist strikes. The prose is readily accessible and free of jargon. This is a real treat.

Accessible Discussion of Forecasting

What did you love best about The Signal and the Noise?

A good defense of general skepticism and accessible explanation of the usefulness and limits of forecasting.

What other book might you compare The Signal and the Noise to and why?

Money ball and similar books by Michael Lewis for making data analysis accessible.

Have you listened to any of Mike Chamberlain’s other performances before? How does this one compare?

No

Any additional comments?

Unintentionally hilarious name-dropping which I found more endearing than annoying. Almost like somebody told Mr. Silver to punch it up. Lots of clangingly unnecessary references to the food eaten with smart, successful people. Small price to pay for this book,though.

Very thought provoiking

Would you consider the audio edition of The Signal and the Noise to be better than the print version?

I don't think so. There are a lot of graphs in the print version that are hard to understand in the audio version. It was nice to switch between the two.

What was the most compelling aspect of this narrative?

The stories told were very cohesive and the author built his ideas upon each other.

Which scene was your favorite?

I loved the part about everyone thinking Derek Jeter was an amazing shortstop because he had to dive for catches when in reality he was a slow mover and had to dive because he wasn't a great defensive shortstop!

What’s the most interesting tidbit you’ve picked up from this book?

Things can be predicted if we can open our minds to the possibility they can happen--the most dangerous thing we can do is deny that something could EVER happen.

Any additional comments?

very compelling book and thought-provoking.

Good, but repeats many other books on the topic

Is there anything you would change about this book?

It's a very good book, but it basically repackages stories, theories, and anecdotes from other books on the topic. If you've read nothing on why predictions fail - it'll be a good read for you. If you've read a few other books on the topic - this one won't tell you much new.

What to think about.

Silver's book provides a miriad of views on our natural interest of the future. Provinding example after example of interesting predictions without excessive detail, Silver contrasts the problems of our wishful thinking verses weighing reasonable probability with far less bias.
I thought the text of book worked well in an audio format, and the pace of the reader, Mike Chamberlain, appropriate. Worth listening to more than once.

Good info for continuous improvement

Would you recommend this audiobook to a friend? If so, why?

If your looking for how Nate did some great research and did some very good successes I recommend the book. If you like a story with drama, mystery and suspense it is a little dry and not for you.

Awesome, awesome book. Must read!

It's always refreshing to read a different way to tell the same stories. This book is a must read for anyone, absolutely anyone, that wants to have a better grasp of what it perceives as real.

Good material- somewhat boring delivery

This is a book worth reading even for applied mathematicians/statisticians for whom the theories presented in the book are basic knowledge. That being said, the delivery was a little flat for someone who listens to audiobooks for entertainment while commuting.