The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't

By: Nate Silver

Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain

Length: 16 hrs and 21 mins

Publisher's summary

Updated for 2020 with a new Preface by Nate Silver.

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good - or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary - and dangerous - science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential listen.

©2012 Nate Silver (P)2012 Penguin Audio

Critic reviews

"One of the more momentous books of the decade." (The New York Times Book Review)

"Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise.... Lively prose - from energetic to outraged...illustrates his dos and don’ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics...[the] chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I’ve seen...even the noise makes for a good read." (New York Times)

"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction - without academic mathematics - cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." (New York Review of Books)

A bit long winded but excellent insights

a stat lovers dream with excellent insights although could have been shorter. Some chapters rambled on far too long after making their main point

The best book on predictive analytics

I've read many, and this one is the best- by far. Don't shy away because of the length, it's all good stuff even if you don't care for baseball.

Fascinating

Would you listen to The Signal and the Noise again? Why?

Maybe

Who was your favorite character and why?

DNA

What does Mike Chamberlain bring to the story that you wouldn’t experience if you just read the book?

Probably miss out on the charts and illustrations which I presume are in book

Was this a book you wanted to listen to all in one sitting?

No

Any additional comments?

If you liked Freakonomics or any of Gladwell's books then you will love this analysis

Surprising and insightful

Nate Silver introduces you to the art and science of forecasting, above and beyond his 538 blog (although he goes into that in detail). His goal is for us to understand how forecasters and statisticians see the world, and he explains things clearly yet thoroughly. Starting with an overview of model design and evaluation, he then gives examples from his own experience and some outside research: baseball, weather, earthquakes, gambling, politics, and more. Every chapter is entertaining and personal. He highlights common pitfalls in forecasting, and offers practical advice for making predictions in everyday life. In sum, a very worthwhile listen.

For fans of Freakanomics and Malcolm Gladwell

Another great economics book. I feel like I know a bit more about how the world works. The point of the book is that identifying which facts are important and which are not is the trick. In this age of computers we are swimming, or drowning, in data.
Like Michael Lewis, baseball is his most interesting topic. He can't help it stats are just baked into baseball like no other sport. His analysis of poker is eye-opening as well. Recommend you keep your day job.
One more critical lesson from the book--any time you are a 90% favorite, you will still lose10% of the time. Example? Trump was a 15% chance and ta-da.

Very thought provoking book!

Hooked me from the beginning! Made me take a hard look at what I believe and why.

Still waiting to learn how to use Bayes Theory

While the books depicts many examples on a few forecasting topics (baseball, weather, earthquakes finance and terrorism), it did not fullfill the what I understood was the objective for the second half of the book on successful attempts of prediction. You can summarize the 15hrs of this book with any article on the web about Bayes Theory and bulletpoint facts about predictions on the topics above.

A must read if you gamble or invest in stocks.

What did you love best about The Signal and the Noise?

Nate explains things very well. Easy to listen to and you will learn a lot. You don't have to know math to enjoy this book.

Huge Nate Silver Fan

Usually, my understanding of statistics makes me feel safer than most. The last hour of this book undid that. The rest of the book was just as interesting, but less terrifying. I've become a fan of Bayesian thinking.

Excellent Insight

Excellent Insight into what's important, what's not and how to differentiate between the two states.